A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis

Patzek, Tadeusz W; Croft, Gregory D.

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2010.02.009

Cited by 178 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Jones (2001) concluded that equally valid scenarios cannot be realistic, since the range is due to a combination of component ranges of uncertainty, and thus the extremes of this range must be less probable than the central estimate. It has also been argued that the equal probability of each emission scenario is a rather odd postulation and even may be seen as an attempt to assign unjustifiably high weight to extreme outcomes (Höök et al, 2010a;Patzek and Croft, 2010).…”

Section: Scenario Probabilities In Sresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some scenarios foresee a tenfold increase in world gas production, while others depict future oil production to reach 300 Mb/d by 2100. For example, 16 of the 40 coal scenarios contained in SRES simply grow exponentially until the year 2100 (Patzek and Croft, 2010). Emission scenarios also contain assumptions about future prices, technological developments and many other details related to fossil energy exploitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

2013

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Future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal CO 2 emission source. Meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion has also been identified as a future challenge. This chapter reviews the connection between these two issues and concludes that limits to availability of fossil fuels will set a limit for mankind's ability to affect the climate. However, this limit is unclear as various studies have reached quite different conclusions regarding future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations caused by fossil fuel limitations.It is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the IPCC and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic. The current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems is problematic. In fact, it may even mislead planners and politicians into making decisions that mitigate one problem but make the other one worse. It is important to understand that the fossil energy problem and the anthropogenic climate change problem are tightly connected and need to be treated as two interwoven challenges necessitating a holistic solution.

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Section: Scenario Probabilities In Sresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

2013

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“…Their model resulted in an asymmetric bell shaped production forecast that returns the same outlook as the simple growth curve fit executed by other researchers using equivalent resource constraints (Energywatch group, 2007;Patzek and Croft, 2010;Höök et al, 2010a). This may be seen as an indication that growth curves can be a sound tool capable of yielding results similar to more detailed and complicated models.…”

Section: Concluding Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

“…Adding additional parameters nearly always lead to better fits, regardless of whether the additional parameters are warranted or not. Multicyclic curve models have been used in several studies (Laherrère, 1997;Imam et al, 2004;Nashawi et al, 2010;Patzek and Croft, 2010).…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Höök

Oba

et al. 2011

Nat Resour Res

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This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models.A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning.

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“…Future availability of oil is becoming highly uncertain, as is evident in the discussion of peak oil. Coal had been regarded as almost inexhaustible, although this view is disputed by Patzek and Croft (2010). Some view natural gas as a bridging energy to a sustainable energy future (MIT 2010).…”

Section: Driving Forces For a New Energy Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment and employment from large-scale photovoltaics up to 2050

et al. 2012

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Investments in renewable energy were at US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US$ 2010 by around 2030 and 1,500 billion by 2050. Employment in photovoltaic manufacturing is predicted to rise to 6 million by 2050. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the core parameters of assumptions is supplied.

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A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis

Cited by 178 publications

References 15 publications

Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Investment and employment from large-scale photovoltaics up to 2050

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