A fuzzy expert system to assist in the prediction of hazardous wind conditions within the Mediterranean basin

Kuciauskas, Arunas P.; Brody, L. R.; Hadjimichael, Michael; Bankert, Richard L.; Tag, Paul M.; Peak, James E.

doi:10.1017/s1350482798001005

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 6 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This is a standard approach in designing fuzzy expert systems: acquiring knowledge from experts and encoding it in fuzzy rules (Kuciauskas et al 1998;Meyer et al 2002). The motivation for combining fuzzy operations with the analog method is not to objectively measure similarity, nor is it to somehow * For example, for ceiling height, a value of 3 ⁄4 implies that if the lower ceiling is 600 ft and the higher ceiling is 800 ft, then they will be described with words such as "very similar" and with ϭ 0.9.…”

Section: Fuzzy Similarity-measuring Algorithmmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fuzzy Logic–Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility

Hansen

2007

Weather and Forecasting

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

WIND-3 is an application for aviation weather forecasting that uses the analog method to produce deterministic predictions of cloud ceiling height and horizontal visibility at airports. For data, it uses historical and current airport observations [routine aviation weather reports (METARs)], and model-based guidance. It uses the perfect prognosis assumption as it is designed to use any model-based predictions of wind direction and speed, temperature and humidity, and precipitation occurrence and type to specify conditions in the 1-24-h projection period. To identify and rank analogs, according to their degree of similarity with the present situation, it uses a fuzzy logic-based algorithm to measure similarity between past situations, which are complete series of METARs, and current situations, which are a composite of recent METARs and model-based guidance. It uses the retrieved analog ensemble, the set of most similar analogs, to make predictions of ceiling and visibility in the 1-24-h projection period. WIND-3 has been tested by being run continuously in real time for 1 yr, producing forecasts for 190 major Canadian airports. It produces accurate forecasts, based on summaries of Heidke skill score (HSS) statistics, and compared to two benchmarks, persistence and official aerodrome forecasts [terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAFs)]. WIND-3 predictions of instrument flight regulation (IFR) conditions in the 0-6-h period have an HSS of 0.56, and in the 7-24-h period have an HSS of about 0.40, compared to respective HSS scores for persistence forecasts of 0.53 and less than 0.20.

show abstract

Section: Fuzzy Similarity-measuring Algorithmmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fuzzy Logic–Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility

Hansen

2007

Weather and Forecasting

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Additionally, they can contribute to the rapid spread of forest fires. The importance of this wind regime is highlighted by the fact that it is a weather type incorporated by the US Navy in their fuzzy expert system to assist in the prediction of hazardous wind conditions in the Mediterranean basin (Kuciauskas et al 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of the island of Crete on the Etesian winds over the Aegean Sea

Kotroni

Lagouvardos

Lalas

2001

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Etesians (northern sector winds), which blow over the Aegean Sea during summer, affect human activities in the area. The numerous islands of the Aegean and especially Crete (a mountainous island in the southern Aegean oriented perpendicular to the surface flow) seem to play an important role in the modification of the wind field during the Etesians. The Crete mountain ranges, surrounded as they are by water, are an excellent example of a major isolated topographic feature which significantly modifies the regional airflow and pressure; however, this modification can hardly be defined due to the lack of observing stations over the sea. For this reason, the available land surface and ship synoptic observations are used, together with ERS scatterometer wind data in order to identify the regions over the Aegean where the wind reaches its maximum intensity, and to assess the influence of Crete on the wind field. Moreover, numerical modelling is used to provide some further insight on the orographically disturbed wind flow. Sensitivity tests performed with the hydrostatic model BOLAM show that the interaction of the Etesian wind flow with the mountains of Crete produces deceleration of the Etesians up to almost 120 km upstream, the leftward deflection of the air as it approaches the mountains, and the associated intensification of the flow east of the island.

show abstract

“…Because the borders of classification of weather conditions in thermal mapping are noncrisp, the problem should be dealt with by fuzzy set theory (Zadeh 1965;Zimmermann 1991). Research has shown that fuzzy set theory can be a valuable tool for meteorologists (e.g., Cao and Chen 1983;Boreux 1994;Kuciauskas et al 1998;Maner and Joyce 1997;McBratney and Moore 1985;Murtha 1995).…”

Section: Fuzzy Categorizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy Categorization of Weather Conditions for Thermal Mapping

Shao¹

2000

Journal of Applied Meteorology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Thermal mapping is a technique that uses a vehicle-mounted infrared radiometer to measure the variation of road surface temperature (RST). Conventionally, the technique is conducted under three qualitatively categorized weather conditions: extreme, intermediate, and damped. These three categories represent basic weather patterns and are widely used in thermal mapping. In real-time operation, however, determination of the weather category is hampered by the lack of systematic classification. Furthermore, certain skills and knowledge of both thermal mapping and meteorology are required. As the thermal mapping technique develops in the direction of providing a platform for automatic and dynamic forecasting of RST over an entire road network, it is necessary to have some kind of hands-off, quantitative, systematic, accurate, and fast categorization of weather conditions for thermal mapping. For this purpose, the relationship between the change of weather conditions and variation of RST was analyzed to define a time domain for application of a reliable categorization algorithm. Fuzzy membership functions were then established, based on cloud amount, cloud type, wind speed, and relative humidity, to compose a fuzzy function of weather categorization for thermal mapping. The results of validation for the fuzzy categorization show that the algorithm can become a useful tool for thermal mapping.

show abstract

A fuzzy expert system to assist in the prediction of hazardous wind conditions within the Mediterranean basin

Cited by 9 publications

References 6 publications

A Fuzzy Logic–Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility

A Fuzzy Logic–Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility

The effect of the island of Crete on the Etesian winds over the Aegean Sea

Fuzzy Categorization of Weather Conditions for Thermal Mapping

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About