A Fuzzy Logic–Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility

Abstract

WIND-3 is an application for aviation weather forecasting that uses the analog method to produce deterministic predictions of cloud ceiling height and horizontal visibility at airports. For data, it uses historical and current airport observations [routine aviation weather reports (METARs)], and model-based guidance. It uses the perfect prognosis assumption as it is designed to use any model-based predictions of wind direction and speed, temperature and humidity, and precipitation occurrence and type to specify conditions in the 1-24-h projection period. To identify and rank analogs, according to their degree of similarity with the present situation, it uses a fuzzy logic-based algorithm to measure similarity between past situations, which are complete series of METARs, and current situations, which are a composite of recent METARs and model-based guidance. It uses the retrieved analog ensemble, the set of most similar analogs, to make predictions of ceiling and visibility in the 1-24-h projection period. WIND-3 has been tested by being run continuously in real time for 1 yr, producing forecasts for 190 major Canadian airports. It produces accurate forecasts, based on summaries of Heidke skill score (HSS) statistics, and compared to two benchmarks, persistence and official aerodrome forecasts [terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAFs)]. WIND-3 predictions of instrument flight regulation (IFR) conditions in the 0-6-h period have an HSS of 0.56, and in the 7-24-h period have an HSS of about 0.40, compared to respective HSS scores for persistence forecasts of 0.53 and less than 0.20.

A Fuzzy Logic Method for Lightning Prediction Using Thermodynamic and Kinematic Parameters from Radio Sounding Observations in South Korea

“…Mueller et al (2003) and showed that fuzzy logic can be used for nowcasting in various ways. In addition, Hansen (2007) and Leyton and Fritsch (2003) used fuzzy logic for forecasting ceiling and visibility. TMF for lightning forecasting can be derived from a combination of normalized membership functions of the selected parameters with proper weights.…”

Analog Sky Condition Forecasting Based on a k-nn Algorithm

“…(Bankert and Hadjimichael 2007;Hansen 2007;Martin 1972;Vislocky and Fritsch 1997, hereafter VF97;Wiener et al 2004). These techniques are usually applied in very short-range forecasting from 0 up to approximately 6 h in the future.…”

“…More advanced nonparametric, predictive learning algorithms, trained on past surface observations, have been applied to cloud forecasting by several investigators. Hansen (2007) used a statistical, analog forecasting method based on a k-nn algorithm similar to the present investigation to predict cloud ceiling height and surface visibility. Bankert and Hadjimichael (2007) applied a similar RP technique to archived model fields to predict cloud ceiling height.…”

“…Witten and Frank (2005) summarize a number of strategies used to prune the feature space prior to application of a predictive learning algorithm. Data mining was applied based on regression trees (Breiman et al 1998), as implemented in OCTOBER 2010 H A L L E T A L . Other strategies include data mining using machine learning algorithms or linear regression, and elimination of highly correlated features.…”

Rainfall Events Evaluation Using Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference System

“…Hansen has used fuzzy K-NN weather forecasting system to improve the technique of persistence climatology by using past and present cases [22]. A neural-fuzzy system for modeling wet season tropical rainfall has been used [23].…”