A future estimate of physician distribution in hospitals and clinics in Japan

Koike, Soichi; Yasunaga, Hideo; Matsumoto, Shimpei; Ide, Hiroo; Kodama, Tomoko; Imamura, Tomoaki

doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2009.04.005

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…Previous studies [11], [12] have predicted that the number of physicians in Japan per 1,000 population in 2035 will reach the average level in OECD countries for the year 2010, which is consistent with our findings. However, physicians' working hours per population and the fatalities number per physician in 2035 suggests that physicians' supply will not be enhanced as expected by the increase in physician numbers.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Forecasting Japan's Physician Shortage in 2035 as the First Full-Fledged Aged Society

et al. 2012

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IntroductionJapan is rapidly becoming a full-fledged aged society, and physician shortage is a significant concern. The Japanese government has increased the number of medical school enrollments since 2008, but some researchers warn that this increase could lead to physician surplus in the future. It is unknown how many physicians will be required to accommodate future healthcare needs.Materials and MethodsWe simulated changes in age/sex composition of the population, fatalities (the number of fatalities for the consecutive five years), and number of physicians from 2010 to 2035. Two indicators were defined: fatalities per physician and fatalities by physician working hour, based on the data of the working hours of physicians for each tuple of sex and age groups. We estimated the necessary number of physicians in 2035 and the number of new physicians to maintain the indicator levels in 2010.ResultsThe number of physicians per 1,000 population is predicted to rise from 2·00 in 2010 to 3·14 in 2035. The number of physicians aged 60 years or older is expected to increase from 55,375 (20% of physicians) to 141,711 (36%). In 2010 and 2035, fatalities per physician were 23·1 and 24·0 for the total population, and 13·9 and 19·2 for 75 years or older, respectively. Fatalities per physician working hour are predicted to rise from 0·128 to 0·138. If working hours are limited to 48 hours per week in 2035, the number of fatalities per physician working hour is expected to be 0·196, and the number of new physicians must be increased by 53% over the current pace.DiscussionThe number of physicians per population continues to rise, but the estimated supply will not fulfill the demand for healthcare in the aging society. Strategies to increase the number of physicians and improve working conditions are urgently needed.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Forecasting Japan's Physician Shortage in 2035 as the First Full-Fledged Aged Society

et al. 2012

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“…The study findings revealed that the manpower distribution has been relatively equal in the provinces of Iran; the manpower resources have always been an essential element in the health system and played the most important role in providing health services (18); thus, the lack of manpower may create a great obstacle against the goals of organizational development in the third millennium; it has economic, social, and direct effects on the rate of access to health services and the quality of such services (19,20). Besides, it is necessary to have a special attention for proper distribution of specialist manpower in the hospitals and other health centers in developing countries to achieve the goals of permanent development (21).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inequality in Distribution of Health Care Resources in Iran: Human Resources, Health Centers and Hospital Beds

et al. 2018

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Background: One of the most important goals of health systems is equality in access to health services and one of the important dimensions of health equality in relation to resources distribution in this sector. Objectives: This study was done to examine the equality in resource distribution between provinces of Iran in 2014. Methods: In the present retrospective study, the population included the public health sector human resources, hospital beds, and health centers in Iran. The data were collected from the Iran statistics center and ministry of health and Medical education. The inequality was estimated by Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient, Hoover index, and by using Excel and Stata 12 software. Results: The Gini coefficients were 0.13797, 0.19980, and 0.1499 for the manpower, health care centers, and hospital beds, respectively. Thus, they were significant. In addition, the Hoover index was 7, 8.60, and 6.70 for the three studied resources, respectively. Conclusions: The distribution of the health sector resources between Iran provinces was relatively equal. Therefore, health policy makers should be focused on the other aspects of accessibility such as distribution of resources according to health needs, resources distribution within provinces, and quality of provided services.

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“…Compared with the previous studies, this study mainly makes a progress in the following three aspects: (1) The previous studies mainly focus on the regional distribution of a certain kind of healthcare resources as a whole, including the studies on regional distribution of medical institutions [35,36], medical expenses [8], physicians [41][42][43], and medical beds [38][39][40]. However, few studies analyze a certain kind of healthcare resources based on the structural systems themselves deeply.…”

Section: Discussion and Policy Suggestionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Existing researches mostly explore RMH or relevant areas from four aspects. (1) Measuring RMH: Many studies quantify RMH through per capita or per land beds or physicians [38][39][40][41][42][43]. (2) Looking for the influencing factors and determinants of regional healthcare resource distribution: Economics [12,18], society [11], institution [19,21], and location [14], which all play significant roles in regional healthcare resource distribution.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study chooses per capita hospitals in each region based on the following reasons: (1) Most previous studies focus on specific healthcare resources of hospitals, such as beds [38][39][40] or physicians [41][42][43], rather than the whole hospital institutions. This study aims to make up the previous gap to explore regional maldistribution of the whole hospitals based on the China's unique hospital structural system so that we focus on the whole hospitals but not one resource of hospitals.…”

Section: Indicator Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional Maldistribution of China’s Hospitals Based on Their Structural System

Xie

Shi

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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Health equity is significant for social sustainability and the Chinese government is trying to achieve the goals of "universal access to basic health care services". As the comprehensive carrier of health care services, hospitals are almost the most important health care resources and their regional maldistribution needs to give a special concern for health justice and social sustainability. This study aims to explore regional maldistribution of various hospitals through constructing, decomposing and calculating per capita hospitals Gini Coefficient based on the unique structural system of China's hospitals from [2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013][2014]. Results show that: (1) the level of regional maldistribution of hospitals in China is not too serious in terms of quantity and there is a slight decline in recent years; (2) regional maldistribution of hospitals is mainly from General Hospitals and in inland areas; and (3) the slight decrease of regional maldistribution is mainly caused by Concentration Effect and increased per capita hospitals. Based on empirical results and the reality of China, some targeted policy suggestions are proposed to reduce regional maldistribution of hospitals and promote health equity for social sustainable development.

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A future estimate of physician distribution in hospitals and clinics in Japan

Cited by 12 publications

References 17 publications

Forecasting Japan's Physician Shortage in 2035 as the First Full-Fledged Aged Society

Forecasting Japan's Physician Shortage in 2035 as the First Full-Fledged Aged Society

Inequality in Distribution of Health Care Resources in Iran: Human Resources, Health Centers and Hospital Beds

Regional Maldistribution of China’s Hospitals Based on Their Structural System

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