Forecasting Japan's Physician Shortage in 2035 as the First Full-Fledged Aged Society

Kikuchi, Yuji; Imoto, Seiya; Yamaguchi, Rui; Matsumura, Tomoko; Murashige, Naoko; Kodama, Yuko; Minayo, Satoru; Imai, Kohzoh; Kami, Masahiro

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0050410

Cited by 31 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(17 reference statements)

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“…To estimate the factors that affect physician labor supply, the articles that had been done in this field were considered (3,5). With studying the literature, we found the most important factors that affect physician labor supply.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Physician Labor Participation and Unemployment Rate in Iran

2015

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Background:The behavior of physicians after graduating from universities is very important for policymakers. They want to follow these behaviors to find what happened to physicians after graduation. Increasing in physician labor participation rate and an efficient distribution of them by gender and geographical concerns are crucial decisions of policymakers. Objectives: This study aimed to determine the factors that affect the physician labor supply in Iran. We focused on the presence and absence of medical graduate students in the labor market and we also investigated the changes in labor supply in age groups and the differences in male and female physician labor supply. Moreover, the unemployment rate among physicians was calculated. Patients and Methods:In this study, we used population and census data of Iran in 2011. Data of the graduate medical university students were extracted. Some descriptive statistics like the physician labor participation rate and physician unemployment rate were calculated in this study. Also, a regression model for physician labor supply was estimated. Results:The results of this study showed that the physician labor participation rate and the unemployment rate were 61.6% and 7.8%, respectively. Both of these statistics were better than the overall labor force statistics of the country. The unemployment rate of male physicians was lower than female ones and the labor force participation rate for male physicians was higher than female ones. The results of the labor supply regression showed a positive relationship between age, being male, being married and labor supply. Moreover, a negative relationship was found between continuing the study at universities and physician labor supply. Conclusions: In this study, some additional facts about Iranian physician labor behavior were presented. These results alert policymakers about the decisions in human resource management and play a major role in policy decisions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The number of physicians in labor market depends on the number of graduated medical students (3). While money is spent for these students to make them skillful, after graduation a large percent of them does not enter the health system and goes to other sectors or becomes inactive.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physician Labor Participation and Unemployment Rate in Iran

2015

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“…While Japan, parts of Europe and many low-and middleincome countries face concerns about physician shortages, [1][2][3] the physician workforce has been stable or increasing in other regions such as North America and the United Kingdom [4][5][6][7]. Among regions of growth and stability, the momentum of increasing physician supply has largely been driven by the sizable and growing number of physicians who have remained in or re-entered active practice beyond the traditional timing and retirement age of 65 [8,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Across OECD countries, nearly onethird of all practicing doctors were on average over 55 years of age (OECD, 2015). In Japan, the percentage of physicians 60 years and older are expected to increase from 20% in 2010 to 36% in 2035, suggesting that if remained unchanged current strategies may insufficiently address future demand for healthcare [10,11].Along with these demographic shifts are rising concerns that an older physician workforce will be faced with increasing cognitive impairment and associated dementia, as well as, physician burnout and deterioration of physical health potentially producing increased medical errors which put patients and quality of care at risk [12]. Physician retirement can also have a potentially negative impact on patient care as discontinuities in patient care can have implications for patient safety [13] and be particularly difficult for older patients who may be experiencing multiple losses [14].…”

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confidence: 99%

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A Systematic Review of Physician Retirement Planning

Silver¹,

Hamilton²,

Biswass³

et al. 2017

Health Syst Policy Res

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IntroductionWhile Japan, parts of Europe and many low-and middleincome countries face concerns about physician shortages, [1][2][3] the physician workforce has been stable or increasing in other regions such as North America and the United Kingdom [4][5][6][7]. Among regions of growth and stability, the momentum of increasing physician supply has largely been driven by the sizable and growing number of physicians who have remained in or re-entered active practice beyond the traditional timing and retirement age of 65 [8,9]. Across OECD countries, nearly onethird of all practicing doctors were on average over 55 years of age (OECD, 2015). In Japan, the percentage of physicians 60 years and older are expected to increase from 20% in 2010 to 36% in 2035, suggesting that if remained unchanged current strategies may insufficiently address future demand for healthcare [10,11].Along with these demographic shifts are rising concerns that an older physician workforce will be faced with increasing cognitive impairment and associated dementia, as well as, physician burnout and deterioration of physical health potentially producing increased medical errors which put patients and quality of care at risk [12]. Physician retirement can also have a potentially negative impact on patient care as discontinuities in patient care can have implications for patient safety [13] and be particularly difficult for older patients who may be experiencing multiple losses [14].The abolition of mandatory retirement in the US has encouraged many physicians to extend their medical careers, while in Japan legislative exemptions to the physician profession have supported physicians in accumulating many decades of experience over the course of their working lives generating greater unpredictability of later career transitions [15,16]. Physician retirement planning A Systematic Review of Physician Retirement Planning AbstractBackground: This systematic review identified empirical studies to elaborate on the understudied aspect of retirement timing related to physician's preparation and engagement with the retirement planning process. Four questions were addressed: 1) When do physicians retire? 2) Why do some physicians retire early? 3) Why do some physicians delay their retirement? 4) What are some strategies that facilitate physician retention and/or retirement planning? Methods and Findings:English-language studies were searched in electronic databases through June 2015 to meet the following inclusion criteria: peerreviewed primary journal articles, published with quantitative or qualitative analyses of planning and opinions about physician retirement. Three independent reviewers assessed each study for methodological quality and a third reviewer resolved inconsistencies. In total, 60 studies meet the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. Representative sampling was used in 75% of studies, however most did not control for confounding variables. The majority were methodologically strong. Physicians commonly reported retiring between 60 and 69 year...

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