A Flexible Agent-Based Framework for Infectious Disease Modeling

Abstract

Part 1: Information & Communication Technology-EurAsia Conference 2014, ICT-EurAsia 2014International audienceAgent-based modeling is a method to model a system by autonomous entities. The proposed framework models single persons with personal behavior, different health states and ability to spread the disease. Upon simulation, the epidemic emerges automatically. This approach is clear and easily understandable but requires extensive knowledge of the epidemic’s background. Such real-world model structures produce realistic epidemics, allowing detailed examination of the transmission process or testing and analyzing the outcome of interventions like vaccinations. Due to changed epidemic propagation, effects like herd immunity or serotype shift arise automatically. Beyond that, a modular structure splits the model into parts, which can be developed and validated separately. This approach makes development more efficient, increases credibility of the results and allows reusability and exchangeability of existing modules. Thus, knowledge and models can be easily and efficiently transferred, for example to compute scenarios for different countries and similar diseases

Why should we apply ABM for decision analysis for infectious diseases?—An example for dengue interventions

“…Thus, the runtime heavily depends on the actual implementation, on used data structures and RAM management. The model has been implemented using JAVA based on a framework developed in earlier projects [42]. A sample simulation of 365 days with the full population on an Intel ® Xeon ® 3.3 GHz processor runs in 9 minutes and 54 seconds and needs a maximum of 600 MB RAM during dry season and 1.3 GM during rainy season.…”

“…We simulated dengue for a one-year time horizon throughout the whole year 2010 in Cebu City with a population of 860,942 people. The model is based on a recently published theoretical framework using a modular structure [42]. Our ABM consists of two types of agents: persons and mosquitoes that are simulated over an annual time horizon considering daily time steps.…”

“…Our dengue model consist of three modules: (1) population module, (2) contact module, (3) disease modules [42]. This modular structure has been developed to build a complex agent-base model that provides the flexibility of model adaptions, validation and transparency, meaning easier to review.…”

MODYPLAN: Early-Stage Hospital Simulation based on Treatment Chains

“…On a regional level, Miksch et al (2014) have presented an AgentBased Simulation framework for simulating medical service provision in the context of epidemiology. However, their model is purely abstract, with no reference to a space layout.…”

“…However, their model is purely abstract, with no reference to a space layout. Likewise, Einzinger et al (2014) have simulated whole Abstract: Discrete-event simulation of hospitals typically specifies flow by means of a process graph through which patients are routed. While this is generally fine for models in which processes are clearly defined, e.g.…”