Why should we apply ABM for decision analysis for infectious diseases?—An example for dengue interventions

Miksch, Florian; Jahn, Beate; Espinosa, Kurt Junshean; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Siebert, Uwe; Popper, Nikolas

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0221564

Cited by 22 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Based on early works on agent-based modelling [ 3 ], we described the importance of the detection of temporal and spatial evolution of epidemics. The effectiveness of the method for decision support was described in [ 4 ]. In January 2020 our group developed an agent-based COVID-19 epidemic model [ 5 , 6 ], which is still in heavy use for counseling of political decision makers in Austria [ 7 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How an election can be safely planned and conducted during a pandemic: Decision support based on a discrete event model

Weibrecht

Rößler²,

Bicher

et al. 2021

PLoS ONE

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In 2020, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused major limitations for any aspect of social life and in specific for all events that require a gathering of people. While most events of this kind can be postponed or cancelled, democratic elections are key elements of any democratic regime and should be upheld if at all possible. Consequently, proper planning is required to establish the highest possible level of safety to both voters and scrutineers. In this paper, we present the novel and innovative way how the municipal council and district council elections in Vienna were planned and conducted using an discrete event simulation model. Key target of this process was to avoid queues in front of polling stations to reduce the risk of related infection clusters. In cooperation with a hygiene expert, we defined necessary precautions that should be met during the election in order to avoid the spread of COVID-19. In a next step, a simulation model was established and parametrized and validated using data from previous elections. Furthermore, the planned conditions were simulated to see whether excessive queues in front of any polling stations could form, as these could on the one hand act as an infection herd, and on the other hand, turn voters away. Our simulation identified some polling stations where long queues could emerge. However, splitting up these electoral branches resulted in a smooth election across all of Vienna. Looking back, the election did not lead to a significant increase of COVID-19 incidences. Therefore, it can be concluded that careful planning led to a safe election, despite the pandemic.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How an election can be safely planned and conducted during a pandemic: Decision support based on a discrete event model

Weibrecht

Rößler²,

Bicher

et al. 2021

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Based on early works on agent-based modelling [3], we described the importance of the detection of temporal and spatial evolution of epidemics. The effectiveness of the method for decision support was described in [4]. In January 2020 our group developed an agent-based COVID-19 epidemic model [5,6], which is still in heavy use for counseling of political decision makers in Austria [7].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How an election can be safely planned and conducted during a pandemic: Decision support based on a discrete event model

Weibrecht

Roessler²,

Bicher

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In 2020, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused major limitations for any aspect of social life and in specific for all events that require a gathering of people. While most events of this kind can be postponed or cancelled, democratic elections are key elements of any democratic regime and should be upheld if at all possible. Consequently, proper planning is required to establish the highest possible level of safety to both voters and scrutineers. In this paper, we present the novel and innovative way how the municipal council and district council elections in Vienna were planned and conducted using an agent-based simulation model. Key target of this process was to avoid queues in front of polling stations to reduce the risk of related infection clusters. In cooperation with a hygiene expert, we defined necessary precautions that should be met during the election in order to avoid the spread of COVID-19. In a next step, a simulation model was established and parametrized and validated using data from previous elections. Furthermore, the planned conditions were simulated to see whether excessive queues in front of any polling stations could form, as these could on the one hand act as an infection herd, and on the other hand, turn voters away. Our simulation identified some polling stations where long queues could emerge, however, splitting up these electoral branches resulted in a smooth election across all of Vienna. Looking back, the election did not lead to a significant increase of COVID-19 incidences. Therefore, it can be concluded that careful planning led to a safe election, despite the pandemic.

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“…17 Ergo, indirect effects of herd effects as well the complexity of dynamic human behavior (interactions within-and betweenhosts) were included. [18][19][20] Given the major distinction between QIV and TIV concerning influenza B, the model explicitly distinguished between influenza A and both types of influenza B (Victoria and Yamagata). The dynamic transmission model, including model inputs (eg, influenza incidence, vaccine efficacy, and coverage), are described in the Supplemental Materials found at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2020.11.002.…”

Section: Dynamic Transmission Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccination in the Dutch National Influenza Prevention Program

et al. 2021

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As of 2019, quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) has replaced trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in the national immunization program in The Netherlands. Target groups are individuals of 601 years of age and those with chronic diseases. The objective was to estimate the incremental break-even price of QIV over TIV at a threshold of V20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Methods: An age-structured compartmental dynamic model was adapted for The Netherlands to assess health outcomes and associated costs of vaccinating all individuals at higher risk for influenza with QIV instead of TIV over the seasons 2010 to 2018. Influenza incidence rates were derived from a global database. Other parameters (probabilities, QALYs and costs) were extracted from the literature and applied according to Dutch guidelines. A threshold of V20 000 per QALY was applied to estimate the incremental break-even prices of QIV versus TIV. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the model outcomes. Results: Retrospectively, vaccination with QIV instead of TIV could have prevented on average 9500 symptomatic influenza cases, 2130 outpatient visits, 84 hospitalizations, and 38 deaths per year over the seasons 2010 to 2018. This translates into 385 QALYs and 398 life-years potentially gained. On average, totals of V431 527 direct and V2 388 810 indirect costs could have been saved each year. Conclusion: Using QIV over TIV during the influenza seasons 2010 to 2018 would have been cost-effective at an incremental price of maximally V3.81 (95% confidence interval, V3.26-4.31). Sensitivity analysis showed consistent findings on the incremental break-even price in the same range.

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Why should we apply ABM for decision analysis for infectious diseases?—An example for dengue interventions

Cited by 22 publications

References 55 publications

How an election can be safely planned and conducted during a pandemic: Decision support based on a discrete event model

How an election can be safely planned and conducted during a pandemic: Decision support based on a discrete event model

How an election can be safely planned and conducted during a pandemic: Decision support based on a discrete event model

Cost-Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccination in the Dutch National Influenza Prevention Program

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