A dynamic manpower forecasting model for the information security industry

Abstract

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated model for manpower forecasting for the information security (IS) industry, one of the fastest growing IT-related industries. The proposed model incorporates three critical factors (feedback structure, time lags, and a flexible saturation point) in a system dynamics (SD) simulation frame. Design/methodology/approach-A simulation model using SD is developed for a dynamic manpower forecasting by decomposing complex processes of manpower planning into a set of feedback loops with a causal-loop diagram. Data gathered from a Korean Government agency were utilized in the simulation for forecasting the manpower demand and supply in the context of the IS industry. Findings-The simulation results showed an overall IS manpower shortage in the IS industry. Policy alternatives were proposed based on the simulation results. The simulation model was rerun to reflect the various alternatives to achieve a stable manpower balance between demand and supply. Originality/value-The research provides insights into the development of effective manpower planning at the industry level (macro level), and policies to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. The research model was developed and verified using SD.

A dynamic forecasting model for nursing manpower requirements in the medical service industry

“…Although many rigorous methods have been used, manpower forecasting remains a complex problem because of ''lack of comprehensive data bases, use of manpower-to-population ratios, and inaccurate projections of population growth have contributed to the current health manpower situation'' (O'Brien-Pallas et al 2001). Many key factors have been identified and incorporated into manpower forecasting models to improve their accuracy, including time lags (Grinold 1976;Kwak et al 1977;Park et al 2008) and the fixed or flexible saturation point analysis (Osaki et al 2002).…”

“…In the global market, forecasting models need to consider global manpower flows, outsourcing, and outward-oriented foreign direct investments. Today, the inflow of nursing manpower into foreign countries is increasing even though national policies, such as immigration laws and international trade agreements, affect cross-border manpower flows (Park et al 2008). …”

“…(2) demand-based approach (Prescott 1991;Lever et al 1998;Raina et al 1999;Reid et al 1999); (3) econometrics approach (Deane and Yett 1979;Prescott 1991;Birch et al 1994); (4) time lags analysis (Kwak et al 1977;Park et al 2008); (5) fixed saturation point analysis (Barnett 1988;Osaki et al 2002); (6) feedback approach (Goodman 1989;Sterman 2001;Park et al 2008); and (7) flexible saturation point analysis (Park et al 2008).…”

Workforce forecasting models: A systematic review

“…They analyzed the effect of factors such as socioeconomics and demographic and health system determinants on demand for doctors based on target physician-to-population ratio. Park, Lee, Yoon, and Yeon (2008) proposed an integrated SD model to forecast the workforce requirements of the information security industry in Korea. They wanted to see how various policies could improve the effectiveness of their workforce.…”

System dynamics of manpower planning strategies under various demand scenarios

“…SD models have been used to analyse personnel policies training army personnel (Thomas et al, 1997). Park, et al (2008) presented a dynamic manpower forecasting model specifically for local information security industry. The model emphasises on the dynamics of supply, feedback, delay, and flexible saturation point.…”