A CBR-based hybrid model for predicting a construction duration and cost based on project characteristics in multi-family housing projects

Koo, ChoongWan KooC.; Hong, Taehoon; Hyun, Chang-Taek; Koo, Kyo-Jin

doi:10.1139/l10-007

Cited by 98 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Generally, the construction duration for office buildings are determined in two ways: the owner defines the project duration directly (Jin et al 2016;Bayram 2017;Peško et al 2017) or the contractor suggests construction duration to the owner. On the other hand, the construction duration computation model utilized by contractors during the project planning stage (Table 1) is not a specialized standard for general office buildings Koo et al 2010;Jin et al 2016;Kim et al 2016;Thomas, N., Thomas, A. V. 2016). In addition, variables applied to this model are also limited thereby increasing the chance of error.…”

Section: Scope and Methods Of The Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Koo et al (2010) developed a case-based reasoning hybrid model for predicting construction cost and duration and based on project characteristics in multihousing projects. Jin et al (2016) developed a case-based reasoning model for multi-housing projects estimating the construction duration in the project planning phase and validated its applicability and effectiveness through application of 83 multi-housing projects.…”

Section: Scope and Methods Of The Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Development of an Approximate Construction Duration Prediction Model During the Project Planning Phase for General Office Buildings

Yeom

Seo

Kim

et al. 2018

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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Abstract. Accurate prediction of the construction duration is imperative to the reliable cash flow analysis during the project planning phase when feasibility analysis is carried out. However, lack of information and frequent changes that occur as a result of a negotiation process between the owner and the designer in defining the project scope make it difficult to compute real-time construction duration. Domestic and foreign models for calculating the construction durations cannot be readily applied to computation of construction duration for general office buildings in Korea specifically during the project planning phase as there is a limit in its applicability due to numerous restrictions. Moreover, there are no preceding studies suggesting different computational approaches to predict the entire construction duration for office buildings with the approximate construction duration concept during planning phase. Therefore, based on the collected performance data, this study proposes a multiple linear regression model that facilitates reliable prediction of approximate construction duration for office buildings in the project planning phase. The model will allow the owner and other stakeholders to predict the real-time construction duration using the basic information on office buildings and to assess the construction durations incorporating frequent changes during the project planning phase.

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Section: Scope and Methods Of The Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Scope and Methods Of The Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an Approximate Construction Duration Prediction Model During the Project Planning Phase for General Office Buildings

Yeom

Seo

Kim

et al. 2018

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…An interesting example of the use of CBR in the cost estimation process can be a model using the AHP method to determine the weights of criteria, proposed by [26] or the CBR model using genetic algorithms to estimate the construction costs [36] or unit cost of residential construction projects [37]. Models are also being created that predict both construction time and cost at an early stage of a construction project [38]. Ryu et al [39] proposed the CONPLA-CBR tool that generates master schedules at the preconstruction stage.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost Calculation of Construction Projects Including Sustainability Factors Using the Case Based Reasoning (CBR) Method

Leśniak

Zima

2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:The idea of sustainable development and the resulting environmentally friendly attitudes are increasingly used in construction projects. Designing in accordance with the principles of sustainable development has an impact on the costs of construction works. The authors of this paper proposed an approach to estimate the costs of sports field construction using the Case Based Reasoning method. In their analysis, they distinguished 16 factors that affect the cost of a construction project and are possible to already be described at an early stage of its preparation. The original elements of the work include: consideration of such environmental factors as the environmental impact of the building, materials used, the impact of the facility on the surroundings affecting the amount of implementation costs and development of own database containing 143 construction projects that are related to sports fields. In order to calculate the similarity of cases, different calculation formulas were applied depending on the type of data (quantitative, qualitative, uncertain, no data). The obtained results confirmed that the CBR method based on historical data and using criteria related to sustainable development may be useful in cost estimation in the initial phase of a construction project. Its application to the calculation of the costs that are related to the implementation of sports fields generates an error of 14%, which is a very good result for initial calculations. In the short run, such factors as the impact of the object and the type of materials that are used from the perspective of their influence on the environment may be decisive as far as the costs determined in the life cycle of the building are concerned, as well as the lowest costs of the building construction ensuring the appropriate quality and respect for the environment.

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“…These studies present methods for productivity or duration prediction using a casereasoning model, a statistical analysis based on historical data, and a regression analytic model, among other methods [21][22][23][24]. They also introduce several methods capable of predicting construction durations using specific independent variables, which were collected by methods such as surveys, interviews, and literature reviews.…”

Section: Construction Duration Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Duration Prediction Using a Material-Based Progress Management Methodology for Construction Operation Plans

Han

2017

Sustainability

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Precise and accurate prediction models for duration and cost enable contractors to improve their decision making for effective resource management in terms of sustainability in construction. Previous studies have been limited to cost-based estimations, but this study focuses on a material-based progress management method. Cost-based estimations typically used in construction, such as the earned value method, rely on comparing the planned budget with the actual cost. However, accurately planning budgets requires analysis of many factors, such as the financial status of the sectors involved. Furthermore, there is a higher possibility of changes in the budget than in the total amount of material used during construction, which is deduced from the quantity take-off from drawings and specifications. Accordingly, this study proposes a material-based progress management methodology, which was developed using different predictive analysis models (regression, neural network, and auto-regressive moving average) as well as datasets on material and labor, which can be extracted from daily work reports from contractors. A case study on actual datasets was conducted, and the results show that the proposed methodology can be efficiently used for progress management in construction.

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A CBR-based hybrid model for predicting a construction duration and cost based on project characteristics in multi-family housing projects

Cited by 98 publications

References 9 publications

Development of an Approximate Construction Duration Prediction Model During the Project Planning Phase for General Office Buildings

Development of an Approximate Construction Duration Prediction Model During the Project Planning Phase for General Office Buildings

Cost Calculation of Construction Projects Including Sustainability Factors Using the Case Based Reasoning (CBR) Method

A Duration Prediction Using a Material-Based Progress Management Methodology for Construction Operation Plans

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