2017
DOI: 10.3390/su9040635
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A Duration Prediction Using a Material-Based Progress Management Methodology for Construction Operation Plans

Abstract: Precise and accurate prediction models for duration and cost enable contractors to improve their decision making for effective resource management in terms of sustainability in construction. Previous studies have been limited to cost-based estimations, but this study focuses on a material-based progress management method. Cost-based estimations typically used in construction, such as the earned value method, rely on comparing the planned budget with the actual cost. However, accurately planning budgets require… Show more

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Cited by 9 publications
(5 citation statements)
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“…Because these general office buildings are sale-inlots or rent businesses, and cash flow for the owner acts as a major component determining the success and failure of the project, it is important to manage the cash flow smoothly by predicting the real-time construction duration from the project planning phase when feasibility analysis is carried out (Hwang 2002;Ko, Han 2017). However, there is a limit on the information that can be obtained in the project planning phase by the owner.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Because these general office buildings are sale-inlots or rent businesses, and cash flow for the owner acts as a major component determining the success and failure of the project, it is important to manage the cash flow smoothly by predicting the real-time construction duration from the project planning phase when feasibility analysis is carried out (Hwang 2002;Ko, Han 2017). However, there is a limit on the information that can be obtained in the project planning phase by the owner.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In addition, we added a third test called Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) [37] to measure the average differences between system-generated and human-generated scores. This evaluation can also measure the success rate of ASAS [16].…”
Section: Performance Evaluationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The MAPE equation is shown in (7), where x (i) is the score from the lecturer and y (i) is the system-generated score, while n is the number of the data. After the mean absolute error using the MAPE equation is obtained, we can also get the Percentage Accuracy (PA) [37] by subtracting the value of 100 with the MAPE value, as shown in (8):…”
Section: Performance Evaluationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…During the training session, the error between the actual output and the target is calculated and then the weights in all layers are being updated until the error reaches an acceptable level [128]. The back-propagation algorithm uses several cost functions as the evaluation metrics in forecasting accuracy through correlation and error analysis between the target and estimated value [36].…”
Section: Prediction Evaluation Metricsmentioning
confidence: 99%