Climate-Fungal Pathogen Modeling Predicts Loss of Up to One-Third of Tea Growing Areas

Abstract

Climate change will affect numerous crops in the future; however, perennial crops, such as tea, are particularly vulnerable. Climate change will also strongly influence fungal pathogens. Here, we predict how future climatic conditions will impact tea and its associated pathogens. We collected data on the three most important fungal pathogens of tea (Colletotrichum acutatum, Co. camelliae, and Exobasidium vexans) and then modeled distributions of tea and these fungal pathogens using current and projected climates. The models show that baseline tea-growing areas will become unsuitable for Camellia sinensis var. sinensis (15 to 32% loss) and C. sinensis var. assamica (32 to 34% loss) by 2050. Although new areas will become more suitable for tea cultivation, existing and potentially new fungal pathogens will present challenges in these areas, and they are already under other land-use regimes. In addition, future climatic scenarios suitable range of fungal species and tea suitable cultivation (respectively in CSS and CSA) growing areas are Co. acutatum (44.30%; 31.05%), Co. camelliae (13.10%; 10.70%), and E. vexans (10.20%; 11.90%). Protecting global tea cultivation requires innovative approaches that consider fungal genomics as part and parcel of plant pathology.

Internet of Things (IoT) and Machine Learning Model of Plant Disease Prediction–Blister Blight for Tea Plant

“…Moderate temperature, from 15 to 25℃, and high humidity above 80% are the favorable environmental condition for the development of blister blight by Exobasidium vexans [1] [10]. Wet and cool weather favors the development of blister blight disease on tea plants [1], [4] The E. vexans affect the tea plant at every stage and almost every part of the plant. Lemon color spots at leaves are the first symptoms of the disease in the tea plant.…”

“…Humid conditions in summer are ideal for E. Vexans to grow and reproduce. Moderate temperature with high humidity favors the development of the disease life cycle [13].…”

“…An increase in disease attacks is one of the major impacts of climatic change. Climatic changes have significant impacts on crop production, and tea plants are more affected by climatic changes [1]. Crop disease attacks cause severe loss to agriculture productivity [2].…”

Potentiality of actinobacteria to combat against biotic and abiotic stresses in tea [Camellia sinensis (L) O. Kuntze]

“…It mainly attacks young tea leaves leading to ~40% yield loss when controlled and is considered the most destructive fungal disease in cultivated tea (Gulati et al, 1993; Park et al, 2021). According to habitat suitability modelling studies, it has a suitability of 10.20% ( C. sinensis ) and 11.90% ( C. assamica ), and areas with increased future risk include southeast Asian countries (Tibpromma et al, 2021). Research suggests that owing to E. vexans infection, the content of important defence hormones, salicylic acid and jasmonic acid in tea plants is downgraded, thus, disturbing the defence signalling and many potentially antimicrobial compounds to aid disease progression (Mur et al, 2015).…”

“…Colletotrichum acutatum is yet another significant tea anthracnose pathogen. According to habitat suitability modelling studies, the pathogen shares a high percentage of bioclimatic suitability at 44.30% with C. sinensis and 31.05% with C. assamica (Tibpromma et al, 2021). Colletotrichum acutatum also possess the capacity to relocate to new hosts and geographical areas and Colletotrichum spp., such as C. camelliae , C. cliviae , C. fioriniae , C. endophytica , are reported to cause serious disease in tea plants with varying invasive capabilities (Lin et al, 2021; Wang et al, 2016).…”