Response of Camellia sinensis var.assamica suitable areas to climate change—Evidence from Yunnan province (China)

Abstract

This study is an attempt to explore the regional resilience of Camellia sinensis var.assamica cultivation with climate change in Yunnan Province and delineate the scope of its potential suitable areas at three levels. Based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, combined with the distribution data of C. sinensis var.assamica species and environmental variable data, the main influencing factors of its distribution were figured out, and the suitable growing areas of C. sinensis var.assamica under the current and future climate conditions were predicted. The results show (1) the MaxEnt model can be deliberately constructed for the prediction of the suitable distribution areas of C. sinensis var.assamica in Yunnan. The dominant environmental factors affecting the planting of it are the average rainfall in October, the soil type and the mountain slope, having a contribution ratio of 84.9% with a total. (2) Under the current climate condition, the areas suitable for C. sinensis var.assamica are mainly in the west, southwest and south regions of Yunnan. The total suitable areas account for approximately 37.55% of Yunnan. The highly suitable areas are surrounded by moderately suitable areas which are surrounded by low suitable areas. (3) In the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the total suitable area shows an increasing trend, reaching 41.76% and 52.30% of the land area of Yunnan Province, respectively. With higher carbon emissions, the increase in suitable area will be greater. The centroid of the suitable area would migrate toward higher altitude and higher latitude. The growers can adjust the suitable areas according to the local climate and terrain conditions and the conclusions of this paper to cope with impact of climate change on the yield of C. sinensis var.assamica.