21st Century Projections of Extreme Precipitation Indicators for Cyprus

Abstract

According to observational and model-based studies, the eastern Mediterranean region is one of the most prominent climate-change hotspots in the world. The combined effect of warming and drying is expected to augment the regional impacts of global warming. In addition to changes in mean climatic conditions, global warming is likely to induce changes in several aspects of extreme rainfall such as duration and magnitude. In this context, we explore the impact of climate change on precipitation with the use of several indicators. We focus on Cyprus, a water-stressed island located in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. Our results are derived from a new high-resolution simulation for the 21st century, which is driven by a “business-as-usual” scenario. In addition to a strong temperature increase (up to 4.1 °C), our analysis highlights that, on average for the island, most extreme precipitation indicators decrease, suggesting a transition to much drier conditions. The absolute daily rainfall maxima exhibit strong local variability, indicating the need for high resolution simulations to understand the potential impacts on future flooding.

Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

“…The mid-century projections for RCP8.5 are in between (2-2.5°C). Previous national or regional assessments have been developed for the region or parts of it (Zanis et al, 2009;Hadjinicolaou et al, 2011;Lelieveld et al, 2016Lelieveld et al, , 2012Önol and Unal, 2014;Jacob et al, 2014;Bucchignani et al, 2018;Ozturk et al, 2018;Hochman et al, 2018c;Mostafa et al, 2019;Zittis et al, 2019Zittis et al, , 2020Almazroui et al, 2020;Driouech et al, 2020a;Drobinski et al, 2020;Giannakis et al, 2020;Varotsos et al, 2021;Coppola et al, 2021a;Georgoulias et al, 2022). Although different models, pathways and/or scenarios might have been used, the ranges of projected temperature trends, warming patterns and significance levels are in close agreement with the present, updated analysis.…”

Bias Correction of RCM Precipitation by TIN-Copula Method: A Case Study for Historical and Future Simulations in Cyprus

“…The main improvement is achieved for mountainous areas, where the climate model also has largest biases. This is in accord with Zittis et al [37] who mentioned that the large biases in mountainous grids are related to the 12-km resolution, which does not adequately represent steep orographic gradients. An advantage of the TIN-Copula method is that is only uses observed data for the formation of a unique TIN-Copula model for each region, resulting in significant reductions in the biases.…”

“…The wettest months are November to March, while from June to September the precipitation amounts are almost zero. This results in the characterization of Cyprus as a water-stressed island [37], which underscores the need for accurate precipitation estimations.…”

ESD Reviews: Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean

“…CC BY 4.0 License. 2016; Peleg et al, 2018a;Zittis et al, 2020). Recent findings suggest the sign of change might depend on the event severity, with increasing trends for larger extremes and decreasing trends for smaller, but still rare, intensities.…”

“…for Israel and Cyprus) also highlight that drought indicators, such as consecutive dry days, are projected to increase in future decades (Hochman et al, 2018c;Zittis et al, 2020). While most models agree on an increase in the frequency and severity of drought episodes over the eastern Mediterranean, there is still a large uncertainty depending on the chosen definition of drought, future socio-economic scenario and climate model (e.g., Cook et al, 2014;Dubrovský et al, 2014;Yves et al, 2020).…”