Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Zittis, George; Almazroui, Mansour; Alpert, Pinhas; Ciais, Philippe; Crämer, Wolfgang; Dahdal, Yara; Fnais, Mohammed S.; Francis, Diana; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Howari, Fares M.; Jrrar, A.; Kaskaoutis, Dimitris G.; Кулмала, Мэри; Lazoglou, Georgia; Mihalopoulos, N.; Lin, Xin; Rudich, Yinon; Sciare, Jean; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Xoplaki, Elena; Lelieveld, J.

doi:10.1029/2021rg000762

Cited by 168 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 494 publications

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“…The Mediterranean is responding quickly to climate change [18,29,31], making the area highly vulnerable to environmental risks, such as droughts and thermal risk, which are also anticipated to increase in the future [5,[28][29][30][31]. Projected changes and environmental and health risks in the Mediterranean region were especially highlighted in the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released on 28 February 2022 [64].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Extreme HWs like HW2021 will very likely be more frequent in the area in the coming decades, threatening humans and ecosystems [3][4][5]15]. Fire risk may be exacerbated from combined projected droughts and hot conditions, along with the exposure of humans to heat-related stress [7,[28][29][30][31]65]. The high, record-breaking nighttime and all-day temperatures in Athens during HW2021 underline the increased vulnerability of urban populations to thermal risk [66].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lionello and Scarascia [29] reported that according to model simulations, warming in the Mediterranean will be approximately 50% (and locally up to 100%) higher than the global warming rate in the summer. Likewise, Zittis et al [31] found that the eastern Mediterranean was warming two times faster compared to the world average during the period between 1981-2019. The increased warming rates have resulted in an increased occurrence of extreme heat events in the area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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The Extreme Heat Wave of Summer 2021 in Athens (Greece): Cumulative Heat and Exposure to Heat Stress

et al. 2022

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The Mediterranean has been identified as a ‘climate change hot spot’, already experiencing faster warming rates than the global average, along with an increased occurrence of heat waves (HWs), prolonged droughts, and forest fires. During summer 2021, the Mediterranean faced prolonged and severe HWs, triggering hundreds of wildfires across the region. Greece, in particular, was hit by one of the most intense HWs in its modern history, with national all-time record temperatures being observed from 28 July to 6 August 2021. The HW was associated with extreme wildfires in many parts of the country, with catastrophic environmental and societal consequences. The study accentuated the rarity and special characteristics of this HW (HW2021) through the analysis of the historical climate record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) on a centennial time scale and comparison with previous HWs. The findings showed that HW2021 was ranked first in terms of persistence (with a total duration of 10 days) and highest observed nighttime temperatures, as well as ‘cumulative heat’, accounting for both the duration and intensity of the event. Exceptionally hot conditions during nighttime were intensified by the urban heat island effect in the city of Athens. Human exposure to heat-related stress during the event was further assessed by the use of bioclimatic indices such as the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The study points to the interconnected climate risks in the area and especially to the increased exposure of urban populations to conditions of heat stress, due to the additive urban effect.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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The Extreme Heat Wave of Summer 2021 in Athens (Greece): Cumulative Heat and Exposure to Heat Stress

et al. 2022

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“…The capacities of these structures are calculated with present criteria and historical data sets. From one aspect, some research mainly focused on the change in extremes like droughts and flood conditions [2][3][4][5][6][7]. On the other hand, spatial and temporal variation of the hydrograph and its effects on the existing water structures due to climate change is still a research question.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of climate change effects on dam reservoir management

Uysal¹,

Doğan²

2022

JCEMI

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Climate change will alter the inflows into the dam in the future; thus, the balance between water supply and water availability will directly impact the water levels and indirectly affects dam safety. Therefore, estimating the future inflows and reservoir water content can help the operators. In this study, a machine learning Wavelet-MultiLayer Perceptron (W-MLP) method is applied to estimate monthly future projections (2016-2100) of the inflows into the reservoir. The methodology is tested for one of the main water supply reservoirs in Ankara, which distributes annual 142 hm 3 water. The EURO-CORDEX database is used to obtain Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations of RCA4 (12.5 km) from two different Global Circulation Models (GCMs), MPI-ESM-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) scenarios. The monthly W-MLP models are independently trained and tested for each data set (observed data and GCM outputs). The GCM scenario results indicate a shift in monthly hydrographs for both RCPs projections with a reduction in inflows which will directly change the operation of the reservoir. The daily HEC-ResSim model mimics future water content and releases. According to the results, the annual reduction expected in the future inflows scenarios varies between -3 % to -13% under the RCPs, and the effects on annual reservoir water content are much higher (between -21 % and -37 %). These findings can be used in different risk assessment metrics (reliability, resilience, and vulnerability) to estimate the future effects of dam safety.

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“…More recently, however, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations has identified human activities as the "primary driver" for climate change. 2 According to a recent article, the MENA region will continue to experience climatic changes 'two times faster than the global average' in climatic changes. 2 The region has already been dubbed as being part of the 'global climate change hot spots' .…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate Projections Indicate Catastrophic Consequences in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Al‐Adawi

2022

Sultan Qaboos Univ Med J

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Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Cited by 168 publications

References 494 publications

The Extreme Heat Wave of Summer 2021 in Athens (Greece): Cumulative Heat and Exposure to Heat Stress

The Extreme Heat Wave of Summer 2021 in Athens (Greece): Cumulative Heat and Exposure to Heat Stress

Assessment of climate change effects on dam reservoir management

Climate Projections Indicate Catastrophic Consequences in the Middle East and North Africa Region

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