Multicointegração e sustentabilidade da política fiscal no Brasil com regime de quebras estruturais (1997-2015)

Triches, Divanildo; Bertussi, Luís Antônio Sleimann

doi:10.5935/0034-7140.20170018

Cited by 7 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…The conclusions are different from those reached by Triches & Bertussi (2017), possibly due to the differences in the model specifi cations and the unit root tests adopted, in addition to the expanded sample.…”

Section: Objectives and Contributionscontrasting

confidence: 72%

“…Comparing Our Results With Triches and Bertussi (2017) Coeffi cients Models Triches and Bertussi (2017) This paper (up to 2015)…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…This result agrees perfectly with the current discussion regarding the Brazilian fi scal policy, which emphasizes the need to severely control government spending as the most effective way to put the public debt on a sustainable path. In footnote 9, some divergences were found between our coeffi cients and those estimated by Triches and Bertussi (2017). For a fair comparison, here the model was implemented for the same time period as the authors, that is, from 1997 to 2015.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…Both works, however, use the variation of expenses, instead of the debt stock. Triches & Bertussi (2017) apply the method to quarterly Brazilian data (with a specifi cation similar to one of those considered in the present work), and conclude that the debt was weakly sustainable between 1997 and 2015.…”

Section: Objectives and Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…For a fair comparison, here the model was implemented for the same time period as the authors, that is, from 1997 to 2015. Thus, the table below presents the results of the multicointegration tests under model 1 estimated for the period from December 1997 to December 2015, in comparison with the results of Triches and Bertussi (2017). It should be highlighted that this author did not implement the [1A] version.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

Campos

Cysne

2020

Estud. econ

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According to Bohn (1995), conventional econometric analysis of sustainability, based on unit root tests on the government debt-to-GDP series or cointegration analysis between revenues and expenses, are inconclusive to verify the sustainability of the fiscal policy. This paper uses the multicointegration method to investigatethe validity of a long-term relationship between the Brazilian government`s accumulated revenues and expenses and its debt, all expressed as a proportion of GDP. Leachman et al. (2005) argue that this technique allows concluding about the sustainability or not of fi scal policy. The present work considers specificationsthat allow evaluating the reaction of both accumulated revenues and expenses to changes in the debt-to-GDP, using monthly data from December 1997 to June 2018. We conclude that the Brazilian fiscal policy was unsustainable over the study period, due to the excessive government spending and its growing trajectory, mainly at the end of the sample.

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Section: Objectives and Contributionscontrasting

confidence: 72%

“…Comparing Our Results With Triches and Bertussi (2017) Coeffi cients Models Triches and Bertussi (2017) This paper (up to 2015)…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Objectives and Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

Campos

Cysne

2020

Estud. econ

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Sustainability of Brazilian public debt: a structural break analysis

Campos

Cysne

2020

IJOEM

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PurposeThe objective of this work is to investigate the existence of structural breaks in multicointegration models estimated for Brazilian fiscal variables and to identify their effects on the sustainability or not of this country`s fiscal policy between December 1997 and June 2018.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply the econometric multicointegration method, in order to analyze long-term relationships between accumulated revenue and expenses of Brazilian central government and the stock of its debt, incorporating structural breaks, over the study period.FindingsThe unsustainability of the debt/GDP ratio is found here, as in a previous work, but now considering a structural break. As one of the contributions, the present work makes it possible to identify the date as of which Brazilian fiscal policy may have become unsustainable: May 2014.Originality/valueThe work points out the worsening of Brazilian fiscal situation as of 2014. The authors adapted original methodologies both in model specification and in the stationarity test used. The estimated parameters before and after structural break allow for identifying changes in fiscal variables that may have led to unsustainability, thus providing possible guidance for fiscal policy.

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Política De Desoneração Do Ipi E Sua Implicação Na Arrecadação Própria Dos Municípios Brasileiros

Barbosa¹,

Abrantes²,

Júnior³

et al. 2020

ASAA Journal

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The IPI tax relief policy emerged from December 2008 as a response to the global crisis of 2008 that affected it in Brazil. The federal government defined the reduction of the the rates of different products from different industries. The general objective of this article is to evaluate the relationship of the IPI tax relief policy, from 2009 to 2013, the last year of the policy, on the tax revenue of the Brazilian municipalities. Specifically, to verify the existence of variability on tax revenue of the Brazilian municipalities, due to the heterogeneity of the municipalities, typical of a country with continental dimensions and socioeconomic disparities. It is justified to do this study considering that part of the amount of the IPI goes to the revenue of the municipalities and their dependence on intergovernmental transfers. The subsidies were obtained from the FINBRA and IBGE database, comprising the periods from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2015. The methodology was a model Multilevel regression with panel data. The results showed that the tax collection of Brazilian municipalities, considering the entire sample, was positively affected by the IPI tax relief policy. It is possible to conclude that the tax collection of the Brazilian municipalities analyzed, in general, was affected by the IPI fiscal policy, meeting the initial expectation. The conclusion is justified by two non-exclusive notes: stabilizing effect of the IPI policy and efforts to collect funds from the municipalities.

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Multicointegração e sustentabilidade da política fiscal no Brasil com regime de quebras estruturais (1997-2015)

Cited by 7 publications

References 0 publications

Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

Sustainability of Brazilian public debt: a structural break analysis

Política De Desoneração Do Ipi E Sua Implicação Na Arrecadação Própria Dos Municípios Brasileiros

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