Estrutura produtiva, restrição externa e crescimento econômico: a experiência brasileira

Carvalho, Veridiana Ramos da Silva; Lima, Gilberto Tadeu

doi:10.1590/s0104-06182009000100002

Cited by 26 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…López and Cruz (2000) and Holland, Vieira and Canuto (2004) also found supporting empirical evidence for the original Thirlwall's Law for the same Latin American countries for the periods 1965-1996and 1950-2000, respectively. Bértola, Higachi and Porcile (2002 found that the original TL is a good predictor of the Brazilian growth experience in the 1890-1973 period, while Carvalho and Lima (2009) found supporting evidence for an extended (to include capital flows and terms of trade) version of Thirlwall's Law using Brazil data for the 1930-2004period. Meanwhile, Hussain (1999, using data from 1970 to 1990, found supporting evidence for an extended (to include capital flows) version of Thirlwall's Law for Malaysia, and for both such an extended and the original version of Thirlwall's Law for South Korea and Philippines.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law

Gouvêa

Lima

2010

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics

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125

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This paper contributes to the empirical literature on balance-of-payments-constrained growth by investigating how structural change, identified with change in the sectoral composition of exports and/or imports, affects the extent of the external constraint. This is done by testing both the original and a multi-sectoral version of Thirlwall's Law for a sample of Latin American and Asian countries. While the original, aggregate Thirlwall's Law is found to hold for all sample countries but South Korea, the MultiSectoral Thirlwall's Law is found to hold for all of them. As the sectoral composition of exports and imports is therefore found to matter for growth, we then briefly analyze the evolution of each country's weighted trade income elasticities.Keywords: Structural change, external constraint, Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall's Law.Resumo: Este artigo contribui para literatura empírica sobre crescimento econômico restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos através da investigação de como a mudança estrutural, identificada como alterações na composição setorial das exportações e/ou importações, afeta a intensidade da restrição externa. Para tanto, testa-se a Lei de Thirlwall original e uma versão multi-setorial desta para uma amostra de países latinoamericanos e asiáticos. A validade da Lei de Thirlwall original é rejeitada apenas para a Coréia, enquanto a Lei de Thirlwall Multi-Setorial não é rejeitada para nenhum dos países. Como esse resultado revela que a composição setorial das exportações e importações importa para o crescimento, é analisada brevemente a evolução das elasticidades-renda ponderadas de cada país.Palavras-Chave: Mudança estrutural, restrição externa, Lei de Thirlwall Multi-Setorial.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law

Gouvêa

Lima

2010

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics

Self Cite

125

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“…and Porcile (2010). Many other studies validated the model of growth constrained by the balance of payments for various countries, including emerging ones, such as Britto (2008), Carvalho et al (2005), Carvalho and Lima (2009), Jayme Jr. (2003) and Pacheco-López and Thirlwall (2005).…”

Section: Theoretical Propositionsmentioning

confidence: 93%

A model of economic growth for an open emerging country: empirical evidence for Brazil

Arestis

Baltar

2019

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

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Brazil liberalised its trade and finance in the 1990s as a strategy for higher economic growth. However, the country's GDP growth has been unstable and low compared to its own performance during the industrialization period. This paper builds a model of economic growth that accounts for the main components of effective demand as well as important specificities of emerging economies to explain the economic dynamics after the liberalising reforms. The model is estimated for the case of Brazil from 1990 to 2014 and the results suggest that this economy became highly dependent on the world economic growth and the evolution of the real exchange rate. The main finding is that Brazil experiences higher economic growth only in favourable world scenarios but the evolution of the real exchange rate in this scenario may stimulate investments that only reinforce the existing productive structure, affecting negatively the long-run economic growth.

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“…Tras estas consideraciones, se presentan los resultados de la estimación realizada en el cuadro 6. De acuerdo con esto, el vector de cointegración indica que la relación de largo plazo entre las series se puede expresar como se muestra en (13).…”

Section: Estimación De La Elasticidad-ingreso De Las Importaciones Y ...unclassified

Incidencia del sector externo en el crecimiento económico del Paraguay, periodo 1994-2020

Alderete Torales,

Cabral Lopez

2024

Desarro. soc.

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Este artículo pretende analizar la incidencia del sector externo en el crecimiento económico del Paraguay durante el periodo 1994-2020. Para ello, se recurrió a una investigación empírica y estadística. Los resultados permitieron asumir la validez de las elasticidades-ingreso de las exportaciones e importaciones calculadas, en el largo plazo, debido a la presencia de cointegración entre las series, por lo que se obtuvo la tasa de crecimiento económico vinculada al equilibrio externo, conforme con la ley de Thirlwall. Mediante el ejercicio empírico y la validación de la ley de Thirlwall, es posible afirmar que el proceso de crecimiento de la economía paraguaya puede explicarse por el modelo de Thirlwall. De esta forma, se constató que el sector externo ha tenido incidencia sobre el crecimiento económico del Paraguay.

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Estrutura produtiva, restrição externa e crescimento econômico: a experiência brasileira

Cited by 26 publications

References 19 publications

Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law

Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law

A model of economic growth for an open emerging country: empirical evidence for Brazil

Incidencia del sector externo en el crecimiento económico del Paraguay, periodo 1994-2020

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