Avaliação de um investimento em pesquisa adicional num novo processo de produção: considerações metodológicas e uma aplicação

Abstract

O artigo discute a análise de projetos de investimento nos quais não se adequa a hipótese de risco crescente no tempo. Este é o caso de investimentos em pesquisa, onde a cada etapa vencida, diminuem-se os riscos de insucesso do projeto. Mostra-se que projetos deste tipo, se avaliados segundo o critério usual de método de fluxo de caixa descontado a uma taxa que incorpora um prêmio de risco, são sistematicamente rejeitados. Apresenta-se um estudo de caso, baseado numa experiência real conduzida no âmbito de uma empresa privada, onde foi aplicada a teoria de árvore de decisão.<br>This paper discusses the analysis of investment in projects where the hypothesis of increasing risk is not adequate. This is particularly the case of investment in research projects ivhere each completed stage decreases the risk of following stage failure. Projects of this kind are almost always rejected zuhere evaluated by the discount cash flow methods which use discount rates including risk premium. It is presented here a case study based on an actual experience conducted inside a private firm solved by the application of decision tree theory

Ex-ante economic assessment in incremental R&D projects: technical and development time uncertainties addressed by the real options theory

“…Since the 1980s, the applicability of methodologies that are already well established in corporate practice to the assessment of investment projects, with high degrees of uncertainty, has been discussed, as reported by Faulkner (1996) and Neves (1992). Research and development (R&D) projects are the quintessential representatives of this category of investments, in which the risk of additional factors to the natural uncertainties of the market (for example, technical uncertainty) leads to assessments made in conventional methodological bases, imposing a penalty that frequently induces companies to underinvest in R&D.…”