Caracterização estatística de oito séries de precipitação pluvial máxima diária da secretaria de agricultura e abastecimento do Estado de São Paulo

Abstract

O objetivo do trabalho foi caracterizar as séries de valores máximos diários de precipitação pluvial, observados dentro de cada ano (Preabs) da Secretaria de Agricultura e Abastecimento do Estado de São Paulo, verificando o ajuste dessas distribuições empíricas a diferentes funções de densidade de probabilidade. O teste de aderência Kolmogorov-Smirnov/Lilliefors, os gráficos percentil-percentil e quantil-quantil indicaram bom ajuste dessa variável meteorológica à distribuição geral dos valores extremos nas localidades de Campinas, Cordeirópolis, Mococa, Monte Alegre do Sul, Ribeirão Preto e Ubatuba. Apenas na série de Pindorama foi detectada tendência de elevação nos valores de Preabs. As análises de Fourier e de ondaletas não indicaram marcantes periodicidades em nenhuma das séries analisadas.

Using multi-parameters distributions to assess the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall data

“…In addition, it may be assumed that the probabilistic structure of the series under evaluation did not significantly change over the years of 1890-2012. This lack of climate trends in annual extreme rainfall data is consistent with the results found by Sansigolo (2008) for the weather station of Piracicaba-SP (1917, by Blain (2011) also for the weather station of Campinas (1890-2010) and by Blain & Moraes (2011) for several locations of the State of São Paulo (1951Paulo ( -2007.…”

“…The results presented in this study agree with previous results found by Blain (2011) in the sense that the GEV-mle can be used to assess the probability of occurrence associated with daily Pre-extrem data obtained from the weather station of Campinas. Nevertheless, this study indicated that the GEVmle can also be used to evaluate the probability of occurrence associated with 2-day and 3-day Pre-extrem data obtained from the same location.…”

“…According to the Köppen system, the climate of Campinas is CWa. The consistency of the series has already been assessed by Blain (2011). All statistical methods were performed at the 0.05 significance level.…”

“…After Blain & Moraes (2011) evaluated the fit of several distributions (normal, lognormal, gamma and GEV) to daily Pre-extrem values obtained from distinct locations of the State of São Paulo, they recommended the use of the GEV for the aforementioned purpose.…”

Temporal trend and frequency of maximum precipitations in Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre, Brazil

“…Blain;Moraes (2011) in a study about daily maximum precipitation series, in the state of São Paulo, except for the Pindorama region, which data consider records ranging from the years 1948 and 2007 also had similar results. Sansigolo (2008) concluded by non-acceptance of significant trend hypothesis in the observed records of precipitation in the region of Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, and warn that possible global or regional climate change cannot have significantly affected the rainfall in that region.…”