Uma análise da ciclicidade da política fiscal brasileira

Gadelha, Sérgio Ricardo de Brito; Divino, José Ângelo

doi:10.1590/s0101-41612013000400004

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…10 In this month primary surplus was affected by capitalization and onerous operations with the Brazilian oil company, Petrobras, that was atypical. The treatment followed (Gadelha & Divino, 2013).…”

Section: Data Description and Unit Root Testsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil

2020

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This paper provides new insights on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil. We used Granger causality tests, in multivariate and bivariate analyses using respectively VEC and ARDL methodologies, and monthly data over the period 1998:1-2019:11. We find that: i) debt-to-GDP and GDP growth rate have a bi-directional Granger causality relationship; ii) debt can improve growth in the short run and becomes harmful in the long run; iii) GDP growth always reduces debt, both in the short and long run; iv) the dynamic between debt and growth in the long run is influenced by the inflation rate, exchange rate and the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (Embi+).

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Section: Data Description and Unit Root Testsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil

2020

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“…As difi culdades em se garantir a estabilidade fi scal no Brasil têm despertado o interesse de pesquisadores em compreender os determinantes da fragilidade das fi nanças públicas e o seu impacto sobre a atividade econômica (Mendonça et al, 2009;Silva, 2010;Gadelha;Divino, 2013;Orair, 2015). No entanto, não foram identifi cados estudos que utilizassem modelos econométricos formais para, simultaneamente, derivar um índice de fragilidade do setor público e verifi car sua relação com os agregados macroeconômicos.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Fragilidade fiscal e os ciclos econômicos no Brasil pós-Plano Real: evidências de um modelo de fator dinâmico associado à análise VAR

2020

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Resumo Iniciativas de política fiscal são comumente indicadas para amenizar as flutuações na atividade econômica, particularmente durante recessões severas, quando a política monetária torna-se menos eficaz. No entanto, a evidência empírica em países emergentes mostra que os gastos públicos exibem frequentemente um comportamento pró-cíclico e os desequilíbrios fiscais podem desencadear crises econômicas. Este trabalho tem por objetivo utilizar o modelo de fator dinâmico para construir um índice de fragilidade fiscal que permita analisar o comportamento cíclico da política fiscal no Brasil por meio de modelos de vetores autorregressivos (VAR). Utilizando dados mensais entre 1996 e 2019, a análise empírica verificou se as finanças públicas no Brasil se deterioram durante expansões na atividade econômica. Os resultados indicam que choques exógenos na produção aparentam reduzir a fragilidade fiscal e outros fatores que promovem a instabilidade macroeconômica contribuem para a deterioração das finanças públicas, como uma maior volatilidade cambial.

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“…In fact, by using data at the national level, Gadelha and Divino (2013) provide evidence on the procyclicality of the Brazilian fiscal policy. The authors, however, did not segregate the analysis by spending function and no evidence regarding health spending in specific is presented.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Fluctuation and Public Health Financing in Brazil

Matosinhos¹

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The Brazilian public health system, officially known as Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), has long been characterized by insufficient funding and irregular flow of resources. The system is jointly financed by the federal, state and municipal governments, but some imbalance is observed as tax revenue is concentrated at the federal level, while health services are mainly provided at the municipality level. The mismatch between financing capacity and the provision of public health services can influence the financial resilience of SUS in the face of external shocks, such as the economic recession that affected Brazil in 2015-2016. In this sense, the present study investigated the relationship between economic fluctuation and public health financing in Brazil. Specifically, three separate yet complementary articles were developed. In the first article, the scientific production on public health and the 2015-2016 economic recession in Brazil was systematically reviewed, revealing a possible gap in the literature due to the lack of applied studies focusing on the influence of the 2015-2016 economic recession on the financing of public health services in Brazil. In the second article, a trend analysis was carried out to evaluate the financial resilience of the SUS to the 2015-2016 economic recession and the results indicate that the crisis may have negatively influenced the evolution of public health financing in most of Brazilian municipalities. In the third and last article, the use of an instrumental variables approach provided evidence that public health financing is pro-cyclical in Brazil. Based on these findings, two main conclusions were made. First, the mismatch between tax revenue and service provision faced by municipalities gives extra importance to intergovernmental health transfers. Second, the pro-cyclical behavior of public health financing may hinder the construction of a financially resilient health system in Brazil. Keywords: Economic Fluctuation. Public Health Financing. Brazil.

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Uma análise da ciclicidade da política fiscal brasileira

Cited by 4 publications

References 30 publications

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil

Fragilidade fiscal e os ciclos econômicos no Brasil pós-Plano Real: evidências de um modelo de fator dinâmico associado à análise VAR

Economic Fluctuation and Public Health Financing in Brazil

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