Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais

Abstract

Minas Gerais is vulnerable to climate change, with negative impacts on water balance and changes in the cultivation of several crops. Currently, the olive crop has been an alternative source for farmers, especially those in the South of the state. However, there is no information on areas with climatic conditions suitable for olive cultivation, as well as the possible impacts of climate change. The aim of this study was to verify the impact of climate projections on water balance and agroclimatic zoning for olive cultivation in the Minas Gerais, based on current climate conditions (1980-2011), and different climate change projections for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). For the current climate, Minas Gerais showed 37% of suitable area, 15% of marginal area and 48% of unsuitable area for olive cultivation. For the period 2071-2100, only 4% was classified as suitable area, 6% as marginal area and 90% as unsuitable. Projections of climate change, of both temperature and rainfall, will affect the olive cultivation, substantially reducing the suitable area in the entire state.

Cenários De Mudanças Climáticas Projetados Para O Estado De Minas Gerais

“…Considerando a temperatura do ar, as três projeções com o RegCM4 indicam aumento estatisticamente significativo da temperatura do ar no período 2070-2095 e, em geral, há um gradiente horizontal de temperatura, indicando aumento do setor oeste para o leste do Estado (Figura 3). Esse padrão espacial também é obtido nas projeções de modelos globais mostradas por Santos et al (2017). O aumento sazonal projetado nas temperaturas varia de 2 o C (JJA no RegGFDL e MAM no RegMPI) a 5 o C (na primavera no RegHadGEM e RegMPI).…”

“…O inverno é um período preocupante, pois os totais de precipitação já são baixos e poderão se tornar ainda menores (decréscimo de 1 mm/dia), o que pode ter consequências negativas na saúde humana. O padrão e valores sazonais projetados da precipitação na Figura 5 se assemelham com os dos modelos globais do CMIP5 (SANTOS et al, 2017) e com uma projeção do RegCM3 aninhado ao HadCM3 usando o cenário A1B (REBOITA et al, 2014).…”

“…Isso, portanto, impactaria grandemente a economia mineira. Santos et al (2017) realizaram um estudo similar, mas para o cultivo de oliveira em MG utilizando modelos climáticos globais do IPCC e os quatros cenários RCPs. No clima atual, 37% de área do Estado é apta, 15% é área marginal e 48% é área inapta ao cultivo de oliveira.…”

Global Solar Radiation Models in Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil

“…ese few studies [3,16,32] present some negative points such as short and insufficient temporal series for a good fit (1-2 years only), no model validation been performed, and models that consider only average air temperature and precipitation data, in addition to the lack of information with regard to the model fit time scale. Additionally, MG is a state that deserves special attention since it has a large land area (586,521,235 km 2 ), is the 4 th largest state in Brazil, is the 2 nd most populous state with 20,997,560 inhabitants, and contributes greatly to the Brazilian economy with diversified agricultural production [34] making it one of the largest producers in the country.…”

“…Figure 1) and is an agricultural state, occupying the fifth overall position in national production level rankings. We emphasize the diversity of the production, which includes fruit trees, olive trees [34], coffee trees [35], sugar cane [36], potato [37], maize [38], soybean [39], and bean plantations [40]. Furthermore, MG has a typical monsoon climate, with two welldefined seasons: the dry winter (June, July, and August) and the humid summer (December, January, and February), influenced by local convective activities and the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) [36], and both contribute to the state ranking with one of the country's biggest agricultural yields [41].…”