Regime de chuvas e saúde infantil no estado do Ceará: evidências para os municípios em anos censitários (1991-2010)

Abstract

The current study aims to investigate the impact of rainfall regime of the municipalities of the Ceará state on child health, proxied by the child mortality rate (CMR), in census years (1991, 2000 and 2010). The regressions show a negative relationship between CMR and rainfall fl uctuations, in which the exposure to infectious diseases arises as the main mechanism effect. It is also observed that CMR is particularly responsive to the occurrence of episodes of severe/extreme droughts. This result is particularly worrisome, once the climate change predictions indicate an increase in the duration and intensifi cation of droughts in the Northeast region of Brazil. Estimates based on such projections, suggest that the loss of human capital in childhood due to the future drops in municipal rainfall level can reach 1,5% of the state GDP until the end of the 21 st century.

Objetivos de Desenvolvimento do Milênio: impacto de ações assistenciais e mudanças socioeconômicas e sanitárias na mortalidade de crianças

“…Health factors also showed a strong and inverse correlation with the under-five mortality rate. The changes Brazil has experienced in recent years and that culminated in the improvement of some of its socioeconomic and health indicators, decreasing the difficulties in access to and use of the means for the promotion, protection, recovery, and rehabilitation of the population's health, contributed directly to the reduction in under-five mortality 25,26 .…”