Impactos das Mudanças Climáticas em uma Bacia Hidrográfica no Sul do Estado de Minas Gerais

Zákhia, Estefânia Maria Sousa; Alvarenga, Lívia Alves; Tomasella, Javier; Martins, Minella Alves; Santos, Ariane dos; Melo, Pâmela Aparecida

doi:10.1590/0102-7786360002

Cited by 5 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Projections indicate an increase of up to 10 days in the consecutive dry days (CDD) index over the period 1961-1900 for the most part of the state of São Paulo, corroborating the results of FERREIRA & VALVERDE (2022), who associate it with the reduction of water availability in hydrographic basins, which may increase the risk of shortages in urban areas and eventual problems in the irrigation of agricultural areas (ZÁKHIA et al 2021). ASSAD et al (2013) stated that the effects of the atmosphere warming, as projected, would have negative economic impacts on Brazilian agricultural production, mainly in pastures and grains, projecting a reduction in grain production of around 4.6 million tons in 2030.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

“…This situation should be even worse in metropolitan regions, where population density and the high degree of anthropogenic derivation of natural geosystems greatly increase the socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability of these places. It is worth noting that the demand for water on the coast is already high (SÃO PAULO 2020), especially during the summer, and if there is a reduction in annual totals, as shown in figures 8C and 8D, serious water supply problems can be intensified, such as also highlight by ZÁKHIA et al (2021) andVALVERDE (2022). On the other hand, the increase in annual totals may indicate an increased risk of landslides and other erosive processes triggered by rainfall, especially in Serra do Mar, where natural susceptibility is high (ROSSINI-PENTEADO & FERREIRA 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The projections also indicate the possibility of a reduction in total annual precipitation and in other extreme events indices, suggesting problems in water supply, waterway operation and agriculture. Small and medium rural producers, responsible for the production of food for the Brazilian people, are more vulnerable to variations in precipitation, as well as the reservoirs that supply the Metropolitan Regions of the State of São Paulo (ZÁKHIA et al 2021, FERREIRA & VALVERDE 2022. The area with the greatest increase in temperature (Figure 3) is the recharge area of the Guarani aquifer, an important source of water supply, which may have an overload in relation to water demand (SÃO PAULO 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies gathered and assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) demonstrate an increase in average air temperature related to the growing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, caused mainly by human activities, whose impact tends to increase the variability of climatic attributes and produce disasters (ALEXANDER et al 2005, MEEHL et al 2005, GRIMM & NATORI 2006, VERA et al 2006, BOMBARDI & CARVALHO 2008, VALVERDE & MARENGO 2010, RIBEIRO NETO et al 2012, MARENGO et al 2013, OBREGON et al 2014, VIOLA et al 2014, NATIVIDADE et al 2017, MACHADO et al 2021, ZÁKHIA et al 2021, FERREIRA & VALVERDE 2022. Evidence of human influence on the climate system was considered very likely, with a degree of confidence greater than 90%, in the publication of the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC-AR4 (IPCC 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in the 2020 - 2050 period

Armani¹,

Lima²,

Garcia³

et al. 2022

Derb

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The objective of this article is to present climate projections for the 2020–2050 period for several climate variables for the State of São Paulo, considering two scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These projections were based on four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, CanESM2, and BESM) with downscaling of 20 km improved by the CPTEC/INPE Eta Regional Climate Model. Nine variables related to air temperature and rainfall were selected, and the deviation between the observed period (1961–1990) and the projected period (2020–2050) was calculated for the two RCP scenarios for each model and selected variable. Then, the highest and lowest values of the deviations were selected, which represent the maximum and minimum deviations projected for each cell. With this, we obtained the widest range between the possible trends of the four models compared for each variable analyzed in the state of São Paulo. The models used for the two RCP scenarios show the warming of the atmosphere, which tends to be less intense on the shoreline due to the control exerted by the ocean, and greater in the northwest region of the state, furthest from the Atlantic. A reduction in the Cold Spell Duration Index (CSDI) and an increase in the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) is projected, with these trends increasing from south to north of the state. Considering the precipitation, no consensus between the trends of the models used in this study was found, with projections of both increase and decrease in annual total variables and in related extreme indices. Among the different projected trends, the reduction in precipitation is the worst scenario to be faced, given the essential aspect of water. The indicators related to intense precipitation (R95p and RX5day) showed a wide range between the maximum and minimum values projected in the analyzed scenarios, and the increase of these indicators deserves particular attention, since the increase in intense precipitation is a potential trigger of disasters, such as landslides, floods, and accelerated erosion. The results, given their relevance, were applied to the Ecological-Economic Zoning (ZEE) of the State of São Paulo, a technical and political planning instrument that establishes guidelines for land use and management, considering the environmental characteristics and socioeconomic dynamics of different regions of the state.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in the 2020 - 2050 period

Armani¹,

Lima²,

Garcia³

et al. 2022

Derb

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“…As mudanças climáticas nas últimas décadas têm sido fortemente debatidas pela comunidade cientifica (Almeida et al, 2020;Silva et al, 2021;Zákhia et al, 2021;Boulton et al, 2022). Alguns sugerem que a humanidade está acelerando este processo (Ramires e Mello-Théry, 2018) como por exemplo o desmatamento reduzindo a precipitação na região amazônica (Leite-Filho), o que pode ser agravado pelas mudanças climáticas (Staal et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Estimativa de precipitação dos dados CHIRPS e GPCC em anos de extremos climáticos, Bacia Hidrográfica do rio Guamá-PA

Gomes

Beltrão

Pereira

et al. 2022

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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As mudanças climáticas têm provocado maior frequência e intensidade de eventos extremos em todo mundo. Então, o monitoramento hidroclimático é essencial para o conhecimento da variabilidade. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o desempenho dos conjuntos de dados CHIRPS e GPCC na estimação da precipitação em anos de extremos climáticos na bacia hidrográfica do rio Guamá. Utilizou-se índices climáticos da National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, dados pluviométricos medidos da Agência Nacional de Águas, conjunto de dados estimados Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations e Global Precipitation Climatology Center. Calculou-se a média e o desvio padrão da chuva ao longo dos anos para detecção dos anos extremos. Realizou-se análises estatísticas para aferição da qualidade dos dados estimados. Construiu-se gráficos para analisar a variação temporal e mapas em ambiente de Sistema de Informação Geográfica para a observação espacial da chuva estimada. A estatística mostrou melhor correlação para Belém, ajuste perfeito e sem erros significativos para Irituia, apesar tendências de subestimação elevada do GPCC. Os indicadores climáticos estão bem associados aos anos extremos. Em anos de El Niño e Dipolo positivo identifica-se a redução das chuvas principalmente á Sudeste. Em contrapartida, no La Niña e o Dipolo negativo observa-se o aumento da precipitação concentrando-se na parte Noroeste. Há tendências de excedente pluviométrico na bacia hidrográfica do rio Guamá (CHIRPS), sendo o produto mais representativo da variabilidade em anos extremos. Assim, questionamentos sobre o quanto os eventos climáticos provocam maior dificuldade na estimação pluviométrica em áreas sem medições, precisam ser mais investigados para melhoria dos produtos estimadores de chuva. Rainfall estimate from CHIRPS and GPCC data in years of extreme weather, Guamá watershed-PA ABSTRACT Climate change has caused greater frequency and intensity of extreme events around the world. So, hydroclimatic monitoring is essential for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation, which is generally the meteorological element that conducts natural disasters. The objective of this scientific study is to analyze the performance of the CHIRPS and GPCC datasets in the estimation of the spatial-temporal variability of rainfall in years of climatic extremes in the Guamá watershed. Used the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate indices, measured rainfall data from the National Water Agency, an estimated Climate Hazards Group, InfraRed Precipitation with Stations and Global Precipitation Climatology Center dataset. The mean and standard deviation of rainfall over the years was calculated to detect extreme years. Performed statistical calculations to measure the quality of estimated data. Graphs were built to analyze temporal variation and maps in a Geographic Information System environment for the observation of the spatial distribution of estimated rainfall. The statistic showed better correlation for Belém, perfect fit and no significant errors for Irituia, although high underestimation tendencies of the GPCC. Weather indicators are well associated with extreme years. In years of El Niño and positive Dipole, there is a reduction in rainfall, especially in the Southeast region. Though, when there is La Niña and a negative Dipole, there is an increase in rainfall, concentrating in the Northwestern region. There are trends in excess rainfall in the Guamá watershed (CHIRPS), being the most representative product of variability in extreme years. Thus, questions about the extent to which weather events cause greater difficulty in estimating rainfall in areas without measurements need to be further investigated to improve rainfall estimation products.

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Analysis of hydrological impacts caused by climatic and anthropogenic changes in Upper Grande River Basin, Brazil

Melo

Alvarenga²,

Tomasella³

et al. 2022

Environ Earth Sci

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Impactos das Mudanças Climáticas em uma Bacia Hidrográfica no Sul do Estado de Minas Gerais

Cited by 5 publications

References 51 publications

Regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in the 2020 - 2050 period

Regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in the 2020 - 2050 period

Estimativa de precipitação dos dados CHIRPS e GPCC em anos de extremos climáticos, Bacia Hidrográfica do rio Guamá-PA

Analysis of hydrological impacts caused by climatic and anthropogenic changes in Upper Grande River Basin, Brazil

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