We present a comparative analysis of first principles Global Self‐consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) in prediction of ionospheric disturbances during three geomagnetic storms: from moderate on 8–9 March 2008 and on 17–18 March 2013 to strong one on 17–18 March 2015, so‐called St. Patrick's Day storms. We have found that in general, the GSM TIP model gave reasonable prediction of both positive and negative ionospheric storms. Most difficulties have been found for the St. Patrick's Day storms. Namely, a strong positive storm at low latitudes above the Pacific and in the South Atlantic Anomaly region on the main and recovery phases could not be predicted by the model. The positive storm could be explained by ionization effect of energetic electron enhancements. Dynamics of negative ionospheric storms at middle latitudes was predicted by the GSM TIP model quite well though the amplitude of storms was underestimated. The latter could result from underestimation of the N2 contribution especially under unusual conditions of anomalous expansion of auroral precipitations to middle latitudes during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm.
This paper presents observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves from multiple data sources during the four Geospace Environment Modeling challenge events in 2013 selected by the Geospace Environment Modeling Quantitative Assessment of Radiation Belt Modeling focus group: 17 and 18 March (stormtime enhancement), 31 May to 2 June (stormtime dropout), 19 and 20 September (nonstorm enhancement), and 23–25 September (nonstorm dropout). Observations include EMIC wave data from the Van Allen Probes, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms spacecraft in the near‐equatorial magnetosphere and from several arrays of ground‐based search coil magnetometers worldwide, as well as localized ring current proton precipitation data from low‐altitude Polar Operational Environmental Satellite spacecraft. Each of these data sets provides only limited spatial coverage, but their combination shows consistent occurrence patterns and reveals some events that would not be identified as significant using near‐equatorial spacecraft alone. Relativistic and ultrarelativistic electron flux observations, phase space density data, and pitch angle distributions based on data from the Relativistic Electron‐Proton Telescope and Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer instruments on the Van Allen Probes during these events show two cases during which EMIC waves are likely to have played an important role in causing major flux dropouts of ultrarelativistic electrons, particularly near L* ~4.0. In three other cases, identifiable smaller and more short‐lived dropouts appeared, and in five other cases, these waves evidently had little or no effect.
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