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Aim. To develop a prediction model of individual probability of long term (within first 28 days from the onset) outcome of stroke.Material and methods. By the method of territory-populational registry, in 2009-2016 in 16 regions of Russia, an analysis performed, of significant predictors of fatal stroke outcome. Overall, 50902 strokes registered in persons older 25 y. In 1553 there were no data on long term mortality. By the results of revealed significant predictors of the fatal outcome of stroke by LOTUS method, a tree-branching was done for development of probability of long term fatal outcome during the first 28 days from disease presentation.Results. The significant predictors were acquired, of the fatal outcome of stroke, and graded by odds ratio. Based on the definition of significant predictors of fatal outcome, first time a prediction model developed of probability of long term stroke fatal outcome taken heterogeneity and multifactorial nature of the disease. Clinical guidelines proposed.Conclusion. The developed prediction model of individual probability of long term stroke fatal outcome shows high level of sensitivity and specificity. Application of such model and of proposed clinical guidelines at various stages of patients management will facilitate diagnostical search, management strategy selection and improvement of prevention.

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Background. Stroke is a severe medical, social and economic burden for all countries of the world. The leading indicators characterizing the “epidemiological picture” of stroke are the incidence and mortality rates from stroke.Aims. Analyze the dynamics of stroke incidence and mortality rates in the regions of Russia that were included in the federal program for reorganizing care for patients with stroke for the period from 2009 to 2016.Material and methods. The study was based on the data of the territorial-population register for seven study areas in the regions of Russia that were included in the federal program for reorganizing care for patients with stroke (Republic of Bashkortostan, Sverdlovsk region, Republic of Tatarstan, Sakhalin region, Stavropol Territory, Ivanovo Region and Irkutsk Region). The age of the examined persons was 25 years and older.Results. In the period from 2009 to 2016, in the studied territories, there was a consistent stable decrease in the value of the stroke incidence rate. Stroke mortality rates fluctuated with a single increase in 2012. When comparing the average incidence of stroke and mortality from it between 2009 and 2016, we discovered a statistically significant decrease in the incidence of stroke – by 1.4 times and in the rate of mortality from stroke – by 2.3 times. According to the results of the cluster analysis, we revealed a significant conformity (similarity) of mortality rates between regions by 2016 and the absence of monotony (stability) of the rate of stroke incidence.Conclusion. In all the regions under study, an almost systematic annual decrease in the incidence and mortality rates from stroke among the adult population was revealed in seven studied territories. The results of cluster analysis of the “picture” of stroke incidence and mortality from it also demonstrate a positive trend by 2016 in all studied territories. Only one of the studied territories – the Republic of Tatarstan – despite the presence of a positive dynamics of stroke incidence over an eight-year period, in 2016 belonged to the rank with a high integral incidence rate.