This paper presents the analysis of the dataset that is the consumption of electrical power in one household within practically four years in order to find out some patterns, cyclical or seasonal features or other significant information that allows us to do forecasting of the future demand with the certain degree of accuracy.
SUMMARYThe dynamic of the natural pine trees renewal process in Taiga zone based on mathematical modelling is examined. Dynamic modelling is used for prediction of natural renewal success depending on seeds' yield and bumper crop years' recurrence. In current study mean bumper crop recurrence is assumed to be once per 5 years, this means that a bumper crop year may occur in 4 years as well as in 6 years. The analysis of the state of natural renewal depending on maternal stand among main forest types is made. The bearing age of 30 years is assumed, with the maximum seed productivity age of 110-130 years, depending on the forest type. The data on trunk quantity distribution depending on age was obtained as a result of a simple sum. The algorithm of the sum has been implemented in Interpol procedure contained in the initial text file gav4.cpp. The initial distribution of trunk quantity depending on age was taken from the growth progress tables. The change of trunk quantity by decades was determined using extrapolation of known values according to power function N= 424316,4хА-1,3533 . The value of approximation certainty factor equals R 2 = 0.9857. The age of stands changes from 20 to 190 years. The amount of bearing trees aged 31-40 years old was assumed as 5-10%, whereas at the maximum bearing age (110-130 years old) the share of bearing trees totals 70-90% depending on the forest type. The presented model is discrete, dynamic, stochastic and descriptive. Stochasticity of the process is caused by the uncertainty in the quantity of bearing trees depending on age, uncertainty in the quantity of seeds from a single tree, uncertainty in the quantity of sprouts and in the occurrence of normal and bumper crops. To account for randomness a function ravnom (a,b) has been introduced, which generates uniformly distributed random numbers from a to b. Implementation of this function is possible using C++ language. Due to the stochasticity of the natural renewal process more implementations of the program are needed for a more reliable prediction.
The problems of joint cultivation of pine and fir, as well as the choice of the optimal composition of the target woods are examined. Collection of material for analysis of the commodity structure and forest indices of plantings was conducted in the summer of 2013 in Lisinsky teaching experimental forestry of Leningrad region in maturing stands of mixed conifer forest of sorrel type passed by thinning with intensity of 10 to 30 % in homogeneous soil conditions. Temporary sample plots measuring 0.25 hectares were laid by conventional forestry techniques considering OСT 56-69-83. Accounting of trees and calculation of the commodity structure of forest stands was conducted by conventional taxational methods.
The long-term impact of earlier conducted silvicultural treatments on the parameters of the growing stock and the timber density of pine in mixed conifer stands in blueberry-cranberry for-est type is observed. At the experimental plots due to chemical treatment at the stage of young stand and subsequent thinning forests of different composition and growing stock were formed to the present time. On the control plot without any measures conifers are not currently exist. The relationship between indicators of macro structure of pine xylem with wood density is given.
The article deals with the interrelation of forest canopy of trees and high-rise structures of spruce undergrowth of different phenological forms in pleurocarpous moss group of forest type in conditions of Leningrad region. The analysis of high-rise structures of different phenological forms depending on the composition and structure of forest in the most represented types of forests in Leningrad region is made. For further insights on the role of composition and structure of forest stand as factors determining high-rise structure of different phenological forms of undergrowth of spruce, analysis of variance was conducted. Decrease in the share of large height spruce undergrowth of all phenological forms in the increase of participation of spruce in the growing stock, with increasing elative completeness of forest stand, its age and stock, allowed to conclude that the structure of natural regeneration of spruce on height is affected by the degree of illumination under the canopy of forest stand. Analysis of altitudinal structure of spruce undergrowth in different phenological forms in height, depending on forest type showed that proportion of the undergrowth of all phenological forms is higher in dry forest types than in wet forest. From this we can conclude that high-rise structure of spruce undergrowth in different phenological forms is influenced not only by illuminance under the canopy of the forest, but also fertility of soil, its physical and chemical properties. Conducted analysis of variance confirmed statistically significant dependence of this factor. As a result of conducted research it can be concluded, that in conditions of middle taiga of all biocenotic factors factors, forest type and composition of stands have greater influence on high-rise structure of phenological forms of spruce undergrowth.
In the article features are considered after forest fire regeneration processes in pine stands in the Luga and Putilov landscapes related to two forest districts of the Leningrad region. Quantitative and qualitative comparative analysis was carried out with the help of statistical methods of investigation: dispersion and rank analysis. The quantitative differences in the renewal dynamics of pine in cowberry and bilberry forest types on post-pyrogenic sites and under the parent stand in both regions of the study were determined based on the analysis of variance. The study showed a significant difference in the successful resumption of pine after a grassroots fire for the Luzhsky and Kirovsky forestry's. The use of rank analysis using the Spearman coefficient made it possible to establish differences in the qualitative characteristics of pine undergrowth and to reveal the nature of the orientation of reforestation processes after grassroots fires. The conducted research has shown that landscape conditions exert a great influence on the nature of pine renewal, on the indicators of occurrence, vital state, abundance. The indicator of rank evaluation of the qualitative characteristics of pine undergrowth allowed them to compare and identify those that are crucial for growth under certain conditions. It is concluded that the landscape and soil-hydrological growth conditions are the leading factors in the quantitative representation of the undergrowth that arose after the grassland fires, and, depending on these conditions, a pioneering growth strategy for pine as a species is manifested. The study showed that in the same forest-typological conditions, but in different landscape areas, the renewal of pine can differ in its quantitative and qualitative characteristics.
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