[1] In this paper we continue the community-wide rigorous modern space weather model validation efforts carried out within GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. In this particular effort, in coordination among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), modelers, and science community, we focus on studying the models' capability to reproduce observed ground magnetic field fluctuations, which are closely related to geomagnetically induced current phenomenon. One of the primary motivations of the work is to support NOAA SWPC in their selection of the next numerical model that will be transitioned into operations. Six geomagnetic events and 12 geomagnetic observatories were selected for validation. While modeled and observed magnetic field time series are available for all 12 stations, the primary metrics analysis is based on six stations that were selected to represent the high-latitude and mid-latitude locations. Events-based analysis and the corresponding contingency tables were built for each event and each station. The elements in the contingency table were then used to calculate Probability of Detection (POD), Probability of False Detection (POFD) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for rigorous quantification of the models' performance. In this paper the summary results of the metrics analyses are reported in terms of POD, POFD and HSS. More detailed analyses can be carried out using the event by event contingency tables provided as an online appendix. An online interface built at CCMC and described in the supporting information is also available for more detailed time series analyses.

Ensemble modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time at the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center. The current implementation of this ensemble modeling method evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events which occurred between January 2013 -July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62%, the false-alarm rate is 38%, the correct alarm ratio is 77%, and false alarm ratio is 23%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where a score of 0 on a range of 0 to 1 is a perfect forecast), which indicates that on average, the predicted probability, or likelihood, of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters (e.g. speed, direction, and width), particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the K P geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and K P prediction errors computed from the mean predicted K P show a mean absolute error of 1.3.

[1] Reconnection between the magnetosphere and magnetosheath at the dayside magnetopause is studied for southward IMF using high-resolution 3-D MHD simulations. The BATSRUS code is run at CCMC with a resistive spot added on the magnetopause to ensure that fast reconnection occurs and to control the reconnection physics. A large range of Mach numbers (1.9-15) are run. The reconnection rate at the nose of the magnetosphere is measured and compared with local plasma parameters and with upstream-solar wind parameters. It is found that the reconnection rate is controlled by four local plasma parameters: B s (the magnetic field strength in the magnetosheath), B m (the magnetic field strength in the magnetosphere), r s (the plasma mass density in the magnetosheath), and r m (the plasma mass density in the magnetosphere). The Cassak-Shay formula for fast reconnection was tested and found to successfully describe the reconnection rate on the dayside magnetopause. It was found that reconnection itself does not significantly modify the local plasma parameters that control dayside reconnection and argued that reconnection does not significantly alter the flow pattern of the magnetosheath. This means that dayside reconnection is not ''driven'' in the sense that plasma pileup occurs to change the local parameters to adjust the reconnection rate to balance the driving. A ''plasmasphere effect'' was observed in the simulations wherein high-density magnetospheric plasma flows into the magnetopause reconnection site and mass loads the reconnection: a spatially localized plume of plasma was observed to locally reduce the reconnection rate by about a factor of 2.Citation: Borovsky, J. E., M. Hesse, J. Birn, and M. M. Kuznetsova (2008), What determines the reconnection rate at the dayside magnetosphere?,

Modeling is an important tool in understanding physical processes in the space weather. Model performance studies evaluate the quality of model operation by comparing its output to a measurable parameter of interest. In this paper we studied the performance of the combination of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) analytical cone model and ENLIL three‐dimensional MHD heliosphere model. We examined the CME arrival time and magnitude of impact at 1 AU for different geoeffective events, including the October 2003 Halloween Storm and the 14 December 2006 storm CMEs. The results of the simulation are compared with the ACE satellite observations. The comparison of the simulation results with the observations demonstrates that ENLIL cone model performs better compared to reference mean velocity and empirical models.

[1] Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units ( 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME. We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

Abstract. Extensive theoretical work has been performed on the equilibrium structure of tangential discontinuities (TDs) in collisionless plasmas. This paper reviews kinetic models based on steadystate solutions of the Vlasov equation. It is shown that most of the existing models are special cases of a generalized multi-species model. In this generalized model all particle populationsfrom both outer regions and from inside the layer -are described using a unique formalism for the velocity distribution functions. Because of their historical importance, the Harris and Sestero models are reviewed and deduced from the generalized model. The Lee and Kan model is also a special case of the generalized model. The generalized model, however, is also able to describe TDs with velocity shear and large angles of magnetic field rotation. Such a multi-species model with a large number of free parameters and different gradient scales illustrates many observable features of TDs, including their multiscale fine structure. Particular attention is paid to the magnetopause. Observed magnetopause crossings are simulated. The effects of the relative flow velocity and asymmetrical magnetic field profiles on the structure of the magnetopause and on its stability with respect to tearing perturbations are discussed. We also present calculations that demonstrate the potential of the generalized model in explaining the origin of discrete auroral arcs. Numerical simulations of solar wind TDs with heavy ions and a large spectrum of thicknesses are also feasible. This indicates that such a model is of fundamental importance for understanding the detailed structure of solar wind TDs, like those observed by the interplanetary spacecraft ULYSSES. The problems associated with the one-dimensional, time-independent Vlasov approach are discussed and a variational principle is suggested to reduce the arbitrariness resulting from the large number of free parameters.

1] Acquiring quantitative metrics-based knowledge about the performance of various space physics modeling approaches is central for the space weather community. Quantification of the performance helps the users of the modeling products to better understand the capabilities of the models and to choose the approach that best suits their specific needs. Further, metrics-based analyses are important for addressing the differences between various modeling approaches and for measuring and guiding the progress in the field. In this paper, the metrics-based results of the ground magnetic field perturbation part of the Geospace Environment Modeling 2008-2009 Challenge are reported. Predictions made by 14 different models, including an ensemble model, are compared to geomagnetic observatory recordings from 12 different northern hemispheric locations. Five different metrics are used to quantify the model performances for four storm events. It is shown that the ranking of the models is strongly dependent on the type of metric used to evaluate the model performance. None of the models rank near or at the top systematically for all used metrics. Consequently, one cannot pick the absolute "winner": the choice for the best model depends on the characteristics of the signal one is interested in. Model performances vary also from event to event. This is particularly clear for root-mean-square difference and utility metric-based analyses. Further, analyses indicate that for some of the models, increasing the global magnetohydrodynamic model spatial resolution and the inclusion of the ring current dynamics improve the models' capability to generate more realistic ground magnetic field fluctuations.

International audienceCollisionless magnetized plasmas have the tendency to isotropize their velocity distribution function around the local magnetic field direction, i.e., to be gyrotropic, unless some spatial and/or temporal fluctuations develop at the particle gyroscales. Electron gyroscale inhomogeneities are well known to develop during the magnetic reconnection process. Nongyrotropic electron velocity distribution functions have been observed to play a key role in the dissipative process breaking the field line connectivity. In this paper, we present a new method to quantify the deviation of a particle population from gyrotropy. The method accounts for the full 3D shape of the distribution and its analytical formulation allows fast numerical computation. Regions associated with a significant degree of nongyrotropy are shown, as well as the kinetic origin of the nongyrotropy and the fluid signature it is associated with. Using the result of 2.5D Particle-In-Cell simulations of magnetic reconnection in symmetric and asymmetric configurations, it is found that neither the reconnection site nor the topological boundaries are generally associated with a maximized degree of nongyrotropy. Nongyrotropic regions do not correspond to a specific fluid behavior as equivalent nongyrotropy is found to extend over the electron dissipation region as well as in non-dissipative diamagnetic drift layers. The localization of highly nongyrotropic regions in numerical models and their correlation with other observable quantities can, however, improve the characterization of spatial structures explored by spacecraft missions