This paper is the primary deliverable of the very first NASA Living With a Star Institute Working Group, Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) Working Group. The paper provides a broad overview of the current status and future challenges pertaining to the science, engineering, and applications of the GIC problem. Science is understood here as the basic space and Earth sciences research that allows improved understanding and physics‐based modeling of the physical processes behind GIC. Engineering, in turn, is understood here as the “impact” aspect of GIC. Applications are understood as the models, tools, and activities that can provide actionable information to entities such as power systems operators for mitigating the effects of GIC and government agencies for managing any potential consequences from GIC impact to critical infrastructure. Applications can be considered the ultimate goal of our GIC work. In assessing the status of the field, we quantify the readiness of various applications in the mitigation context. We use the Applications Readiness Level (ARL) concept to carry out the quantification.

A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (~141°W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500 ± 500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125°W longitude. STEREO‐A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well‐proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23–24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst ~ −500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time‐of‐day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm‐time disturbance would have been Dst = −1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.

[1] Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) flowing in man-made ground technological systems are a direct manifestation of adverse space weather. Today, there is great concern over possible geomagnetically induced current effects on power transmission networks that can result from extreme space weather events. The threat of severe societal consequences has accelerated recent interest in extreme geomagnetic storm impacts on high-voltage power transmission systems. As a result, extreme geomagnetic event characterization is of fundamental importance for quantifying the technological impacts and societal consequences of extreme space weather. This article reports on the global behavior of the horizontal geomagnetic field and the induced geoelectric field fluctuations during severe/extreme geomagnetic events. This includes (1) an investigation of the latitude threshold boundary, (2) the local time dependency of the maximum induced geoelectric field, and (3) the influence of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) current on the occurrence of enhanced induced geoelectric fields over ground stations located near the dip equator. Using ground-based and satellite-borne Defense Meteorological Satellite Program measurements, this article confirms that the latitude threshold boundary is associated with the movements of the auroral oval and the corresponding auroral electrojet current system, which is the main driver of the largest perturbations of the ground geomagnetic field at high latitudes. In addition, we show that the enhancement of the EEJ is driven by the penetration of high-latitude electric fields and that the induced geoelectric fields at stations within the EEJ belt can be an order of magnitude larger than that at stations outside the belt. This has important implications for power networks located around the electrojet belt and confirms that earlier observations by Pulkkinen et al. (2012) were not isolated incidences but rather cases that can occur during certain severe geomagnetic storm events.Citation: Ngwira, C. M., A. Pulkkinen, F. D. Wilder, and G. Crowley (2013), Extended study of extreme geoelectric field event scenarios for geomagnetically induced current applications, Space Weather, 11,[121][122][123][124][125][126][127][128][129][130][131]

[1] Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units ( 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME. We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

Interactions between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere manifest many important space weather phenomena. In this paper, magnetosphere‐ionosphere drivers of intense dB/dt produced during geomagnetic storms that occurred on 9 March 2012 and 17 March 2015 are analyzed. A multi‐instrument approach combining Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) mission space‐borne and ground‐based observations was adopted to examine the magnetosphere‐ionosphere signatures associated with the dB/dt extremes during each storm. To complement the THEMIS measurements, ground‐based magnetometer recordings and All‐Sky Imager observations, equivalent ionospheric currents derived from magnetometer chains across North America and Greenland, and geosynchronous observations from the Los Alamos National Laboratory Synchronous Orbit Particle Analyzer are also examined. Our results show that the most extreme dB/dt variations are associated with marked perturbations in the THEMIS magnetospheric measurements, poleward expanding discrete aurora passing over the magnetometer sites (seen by the ground‐based THEMIS All‐Sky Imagers), intense Pc5 waves, rapid injection of energetic particles, and intense auroral westward currents. Substorms are considered as the major driver with a possible contribution from magnetospheric waves. The findings of this study strongly suggest that the localization of extreme dB/dt variations is most likely related to the mapping of magnetosphere currents to local ionospheric structures.

One of the major challenges pertaining to extreme geomagnetic storms is to understand the basic processes associated with the development of dynamic magnetosphere‐ionosphere currents, which generate large induced surface geoelectric fields. Previous studies point out the existence of localized peak geoelectric field enhancements during extreme storms. We examined induced global geoelectric fields derived from ground‐based magnetometer recordings for 12 extreme geomagnetic storms between the years 1982 and 2005. For the present study two important extreme storms, 29 October 2003 and 13 March 1989, are shown. The primary purpose of this paper is to provide further evidence on the existence of localized peak geoelectric field enhancements and to show that the structure of the geoelectric field during these localized extremes at single sites can differ greatly from globally and regionally averaged fields. Although the physical processes that govern the development of these localized extremes are still not clear, we discuss some possible causes.

Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near‐Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best‐known indices are calculated from ground‐based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM‐H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root‐mean‐square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.

The occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) poses serious threats to modern technological infrastructure. Large GICs result from sharp variations of the geomagnetic field (dB/dt) caused by changes of large‐scale magnetospheric and ionospheric currents. Intense dB/dt perturbations are known to occur often in high‐latitude regions as a result of storm time substorms. Magnetospheric compressions usually caused by interplanetary shocks increase the magnetopause current leading to dB/dt perturbations more evident in midlatitude to low‐latitude regions, while they increase the equatorial electrojet current leading to dB/dt perturbations in dayside equatorial regions. We investigate the effects of shock impact angles and speeds on the subsequent dB/dt perturbations with a database of 547 shocks observed at the L1 point. By adopting the threshold of dB/dt = 100 nT/min, identified as a risk factor to power systems, we find that dB/dt generally surpasses this threshold when following impacts of high‐speed and nearly frontal shocks in dayside high‐latitude locations. The same trend occurs at lower latitudes and for all nightside events but with fewer high‐risk events. Particularly, we found nine events in equatorial locations with dB/dt > 100 nT/min. All events were caused by high‐speed and nearly frontal shock impacts and were observed by stations located around noon local time. These high‐risk perturbations were caused by sudden strong and symmetric magnetospheric compressions, more effectively intensifying the equatorial electrojet current, leading to sharp dB/dt perturbations. We suggest that these results may provide insights for GIC forecasting aiming at preventing degradation of power systems due to GICs.