This paper is dedicated to the memory of Yegor Gaidar, who founded the Gaidar Institute and for whom fiscal sustainability and responsibility was of paramount importance. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w19608.ack NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.
The study focuses on the chronic or long-term poverty of the Russian population in the 2010s. To estimate the chronic poverty, Eurostat modified definition is applied. The level and factors of chronic poverty are estimated at the balanced panel data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey subject to sample attrition effect. The main factors of falling into a long-term poverty trap are the presence of children, unemployment, living in rural areas, and frequent alcohol consumption. The risk of chronic poverty is lower if family members have tried to start their own business. The presence of retirement age persons in the family and children growing up reduce the risk of poverty. Extreme poverty, with all other things being equal, makes it harder for families to escape from chronic poverty. The main factors of chronic poverty severity are similar to those of chronic poverty. Some differences in the effects on chronic and transitory components of poverty severity are identified. It is noted that the increase in the coverage of the chronic poor with multiple deprivations by the conditional cash transfer program with the extended period of support and the increased assistance granted to these persons could contribute to the chronic poverty reduction.
The paper analyzes the changes in the financial situation of families with children during the pandemic of COVID-19 and the introduction of new eligibility criteria for monthly payments to children aged from 3 to 7 years. The study is based on data from telephone monitoring surveys, representative for the Russian Federation, conducted by RANEPA in October and December 2020, February, May, October, and December 2021. The sample sizes range from 1606 to 2015 people. The results of the study show that the coronavirus epidemic has a negative impact on the financial situation of families with children. The share of poor families receiving social benefits to children aged 3 to 7 years has decreased following the introduction of additional eligibility criteria in 2021. Less than half of poor families with children of this age receive these payments. The benefit coverage decreased significantly among the families with unemployed people — by 2 times. The share of families with self-employed workers, receiving such benefits, has decreased by 2.3 times. As a result of the benefit increase, the share of families with children aged 3-7 years lifted out of poverty has grown by more than two times, but more than 60% of recipients remain monetary poor. This indicates that improvement of eligibility criteria and procedure for determining the level of social benefits are very important.
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