COVID-19 belongs to the group of acute respiratory infections and it is often complicated with pneumonia. This study aimed to investigate manifestations of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) epidemic process during the COVID-19 epidemic in the Russian Federation. We analyzed the official statistical data reporting the incidence of CAP in the Russian Federation in 2013–2020 and incidence of COVID-19 as registered in March–July 2020. The mean average annual CAP incidence rate that we calculated and the 2020 CAP incidence prediction allowed assessing the relationship between CAP and COVID-19. It is shown that the long-term dynamics of the incidence of CAP in the Russian Federation is characterized by a pronounced upward trend with an average annual growth rate of 6.4%. The share of adult population among the CAP cases is the largest; on average, it is 64.7% (95% CI [63.1; 66.3]). In 2020, against the background of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, the discrepancy between the actual incidence of CAP and the predicted figures reached and exceeded 558% (in July 2020). As the COVID-19 epidemic developed, the incidence of CAP was registered to increase. There was established a direct and significant correlation between the incidence of CAP and COVID-19 (rxy = 0.932; p <0.01).
ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ 772017, issue 4 заболеваемость бруцеллезом людей за период с 2005 по 2014 год, особенно в неблагополучных субъ-ектах (северо-кавказский, Южный и сибирский федеральные округа) российской Федерации (рФ) продолжает оставаться неустойчивой. ежегодно ре-гистрируется от 368 до 393 новых случаев заболева-ния среди людей [2,3]. эпидемическая обстановка обуславливает необходимость совершенствования Пробл. особо опасных инф. 2017; 4:77-80 цель работы -проведение эпидемиологического анализа официальных статистических данных по заболева-емости бруцеллезом в различных субъектах российской Федерации за период с 2005 по 2014 год с помощью план-графика вальда. материалы и методы. в работе использовали учетные и отчетные документы Федеральной службы по надзору в сфере защиты прав потребителей и благополучия человека, Фбуз «Федерального центра гигиены и эпидемиологии» роспотребнадзора и информационные материалы воз. результаты и выводы. изучение особенностей развития эпидемического процесса в многолетней динамике позволило выявить субъ-екты, наиболее пораженные заболеваемостью бруцеллезом. полученные результаты по заболеваемости бруцел-лезом в рФ за период с 2005 по 2014 год показали, что первое место занимает скФо (62 %), второе и третье места -сФо (16 %) и ЮФо (13 %) соответственно; на долю других регионов приходится 9 %. наибольшая доля в структуре заболеваемости в субъектах скФо установлена в республике дагестан -62 %. при этом ежегодный темп прироста определен в количестве 5,54 случаев, что указывает на стабилизацию или некоторую тенденцию к снижению уровня заболеваемости в скФо. практическое использование прогнозирования заболеваемости с помощью предложенного метода дает возможность своевременно планировать лечебно-диагностические, про-филактические и противоэпидемические мероприятия в очагах бруцеллеза. применение план-графика вальда для прогнозирования заболеваемости может использоваться и для других инфекционных болезней.Ключевые слова: эпидемиологический анализ, бруцеллез, прогнозирование заболеваемости, план-график вальда. Objective of the study is to conduct epidemiological analysis of official statistical data on brucellosis morbidity rates over the period of 2005-2014 in different constituent entities of the Russian Federation, using Wald method. Materials and methods. Utilized were recording and reporting documents of the Federal Service for Surveillance in the Sphere of Consumers Rights Protection and Human Welfare, FBHI "Federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology" of the Rospotrebnadzor, and WHO information resources. Results and conclusions. Studies of peculiarities of epidemic process development over the long-term period have allowed for identification of entities that are the most affected by the diseases. The results obtained on the morbidity rates in the Russian Federation over the period of 2005-2014 testify to the fact that first comes North Caucasian Federal District (NCFD) (62 %), next go Siberian (SbFD) (16 %) and Southern (SFD) (13 %) Federal Districts, second and third lines of th...
The level and duration of protective immunity are often analyzed qualitatively or semi-quantitatively. The same strategy is applied to the analysis of antibody dynamics. At some point in time t after exposure or immunization, the presence of immunity against the infection is inferred from the level of specific antibodies by comparing it to a reference value. This approach does not account for the stochastic nature of human disease after exposure to a pathogen. At the same time, it is not fully clear what antibody level should be considered protective. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model for quantitative determination of protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and its duration. We demonstrate that the problem of describing protective immunity in quantitative terms can be broken down into 2 interrelated problems: describing the quantitative characteristics of a pathogen’s virulence (in our case, the pathogen is SARS-CoV-2) and describing the dynamics of antibody titers in a biological organism. Below, we provide solutions for these problems and identify parameters of the model which describes such dynamics. Using the proposed model, we offer a theoretical solution to the problem of protective immunity and its duration. We also note that in order to quantitatively determine the studied parameters in a homogenous population group, it is necessary to know 5 parameters of the bivariate probability density function for correlated continuous random variables: the infective dose of the pathogen and the antibody titer at which the disease develops and which are still unknown.
Objective of the study was to conduct the analysis and develop the method of forecasting of viral hepatitis A (VHA) incidence using Wald’s schedule. Materials and methods. The work is based on official statistical data of the Rospotrebnadzor on the VHA morbidity rates in the Russian Federation and Moscow city between 2010 and 2016. Results and discussion. It is established that in the overall incidence of VHA cases in the Russian Federation over the period of 2010–2016, 67.7 % were registered among adults and 32.3 % – among children; as for the incidence among adults in Moscow, it accounted for 79.8 %, and for children – 20.2 %. To assess epidemiological situation on VHA, forecasting approach using Wald’s schedule was put forward. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, the threshold values for morbidity rates among adult population in Moscow stood at 38 cases, fluctuations in mean values ranged from 48 to 63 cases. It is shown that the total minimum and maximum levels of morbidity among adult population in 2017 would account for 180 and 624 cases, respectively. Forecast of incidence among children is determined on an accrual basis: minimum monthly level – 7 cases, maximum – 17. Monthly growth of infection is 0.9 cases. It is revealed that possible cumulative minimum and maximum morbidity rates among children would amount to 84 and 204 cases in 2017, respectively. The proposed method of Wald’s schedule for VHA incidence forecasting will allow for determining both monthly minimum and maximum rates of infection for the upcoming period and provide for timely planning of anti-epidemic measures.
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