Ключевые слова: сельское хозяйство, статистика, сопоставление, продовольственная безопасность, страны мира Аннотация Предмет. Одна из составляющих продовольственной безопасности страны, а именносамообеспечение основными сельскохозяйственными продуктами -зерном, мясом, молоком. Цели. Определение тенденций в производстве основных сельскохозяйственных продуктов в 1913-2013 гг. по ключевым странам-производителям, выявление причин структурных изменений в объеме выпускаемой продукции и выработке на этой основе рекомендаций по формированию политики продовольственной безопасности России. Методология. Использованы такие общенаучные методы, как анализ и синтез, а также экономико-статистические методы, в частности, графический, табличный, коэффициентный.Результаты. Констатирован факт увеличения производства такого стратегического продукта, как зерно, в пяти из шести представленных стран, в России наблюдается падение объемов производства, что объясняется значительным снижением обрабатываемых сельскохозяйственных угодий. Выявлен значительный объем превышения производства мяса и молока в Китае в 2013 г. по сравнению с 1990 г. -в 1,6 и 8,5 раза соответственно, что объясняется ростом численности населения и повышением уровня жизни в этой стране. Коэффициент самообеспеченности зерном указывает на превышение потребности над объемом внутреннего производства. По производству мяса недостаточно внутренних ресурсов в России, Великобритании и Китае, а по производству молока к этой группе стран примыкает США. Недостающий объем внутреннего производства молока и мяса страны восполняют за счет импорта, что ставит под угрозу продовольственную безопасность стран в отношении этих продуктов. Выводы. Проведенный анализ уровня производства и величины коэффициента самообеспеченности основными продуктами сельскохозяйственного производства в крупных странах мира позволяет сделать вывод о наращивании объемов выпуска, отсутствии угроз нарушения продовольственной безопасности в отношении зернового производства и наличии таковых относительно мяса и молока, что актуализирует политику импортозамещения, выбранную Правительством Российской Федерации.
In order to assess the capabilities of the soybean production industry as one of the factors in the development of the Russian economy, the article provides an overview of global trends and forecasts of the dynamics of supply and demand in the market for soybeans and products from it. The universality and multifunctionality of this group of products is noted, which, together with their useful consumer properties, gives grounds for directing efforts to further develop this segment of the Russian economy. At the same time, the features of the distribution and functioning of the Russian soybean market are highlighted. In addition, the article analyzes the retrospective dynamics of the production of this product in the post-Soviet countries - 15 states of the ex-members of the Soviet Union. Based on the results of the application of a set of statistical methods, a comparison was made of the nature of the development of soybean production in the two leading states among the CIS countries - Russia and Ukraine. The study made it possible to draw the following conclusions: the world soybean market is a steadily developing system, in which the leading positions in production are occupied by the United States, Brazil and Argentina, and in terms of consumption, by China. The share of Russia in world production today is only 1%, while in the post-Soviet space, Russia and Ukraine occupy leading positions as exporters. Pressure from global producers and rising prices for soybeans leads to a significant increase in domestic production in the Russian economy. The field of practical application of the research results is to use some of the findings to conduct a further in-depth study of the prospects for growing soybeans, taking into account the climatic characteristics of the post-Soviet countries, as well as to assess the possibility of Russia entering the world soybean market
The study of the effectiveness of spatial innovation development is a highly topical issue today due to the increased impact of innovation on economic growth. In order to assess the structural dynamics of regional innovative development, an analysis of the innovation indicators for Russian regions in 2010–2018 was carried out. Cluster analysis and the correlation-regression method were used to assess the structural changes in the innovative development of Russian regions. The analysis demonstrates an increased number of entities in the innovative leading region cluster by 2018, which can be considered as a positive result of innovation policy and the growth in indicators of regional innovative development. The research results can be used to develop regional innovative strategies and decision making for the further development of innovative activities.
The article is devoted to the description of procedures of economic and mathematical modeling of trends in the field of housing construction taking into account the peculiarities of various countries of the post-Soviet space. The results of analysis of well-known scientific publications on forecasting the dynamics of housing market indicators are presented. It has been shown that most domestic and foreign scientists as the most effective methods of modeling these indicators consider methods of analyzing time trends, in which polynomials of high (in some cases up to the fourth degree) order are used to approximate the available retrospective data. Other common approaches to solving this problem are the use of short-term forecasting based on moving average algorithms, as well as the use of the SARIMA model, which takes into account the trend and seasonal wave. The article shows that these methods do not fully take into account the profound changes in the construction complexes of the post-Soviet states caused by the significant structural transformation of their socio-economic systems. The authors proposed to use econometric models based on regressions with dummy variables to model the main indicators of housing construction, taking into account the complex structure of the external and internal environment of national construction complexes. It has been shown that in a significant number of practical situations, a fairly simple but effective way to take into account the components of the time series of the indicators under consideration in one complex model is to use the model of "change in growth (fall)" when choosing the time of the beginning (end) of a crisis situation as a characteristic point. The results of modeling the main indicators of housing construction for various countries of the post-Soviet space showed that the proposed model when constructing the medium-term forecast allows taking into account the situation component of the analyzed time series.
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