Analytical agencies, as well as international organizations, have identified significant threats to the development of the world economy, increasing the likelihood of a new global financial crisis in late 2020–early 2021. The main challenges to the system come from trade wars that could lead to a crisis in the international system of trade regulation, a decrease in the effectiveness of public policy instruments, and a deterioration in the dynamics of global economic growth. An important factor leading to a slowdown in the global economy in 2020 will also be the coronavirus pandemic, although it is difficult, in the first half of 2020, to assess its final impact. The combination of these negative factors, coupled with the unresolved problems of the 2008 global financial crisis, significantly increases the likelihood of a new global economic crisis which could surpass the Great Depression of the 1930s. This study systematizes the main forecasts by international organizations and analytical agencies for the growth of the world economy and considers various theoretical concepts to identify the symptoms of the impending crisis. Ultimately, this article offers options for reducing the negative impact of the crisis on Russia. In connection with the coronavirus pandemic, preliminary estimates have been made of the likely damage to the world economy and the prospects for its recovery.
Subject. The article addresses a methodological approach to determining the feasibility of including an event that ensures the achievement of strategic targets in the implementation plan of a strategic planning document (i.e., a national project or a government program).
Objectives. The purpose is to develop a methodological approach to create a balanced list of measures, which, if implemented, will have a positive effect on achieving strategic guidelines for sustainable socio-economic development and strengthening the economic security.
Methods. The study rests on expert estimates for calculating the index of activities quality. The calculation of the index is based on the assessment of the index of incoming resources, the index of process, the index of outcome. The approach enables to consider elements associated with the initiation of a particular event, its successful implementation, and achievement of a specific outcome.
Results. The study creates an approach to defining the degree of elaboration of the event and the feasibility of including it in the implementation plan of the strategic planning document. The method of expert estimates enables to neutralize some uncertainties and costs caused by initial data quality, empirical estimates of the degree of obtained results’ accuracy, and allocated resources.
Conclusions. The working out of organizational, legal, and regulatory measures is only one element of strategizing. Further research should develop methodological approaches to the definition of targeted and critical values of the strategy system to implement a high-quality and operational monitoring.
The article proposes methodological approaches to the verification of indicators of the state of the country's economic security using the method of fractal analysis. Fractal analysis technologies make it possible to determine the nature and dynamics of changes in the indicator, to verify its values (indicative or critical), and also to reveal the rate at which these states are reached on the time horizon of statistical observations. The unemployment rate indicator is selected as an example.Keywords: strategic planning, unemployment rate, fractal analysis, indicators of the state of economic security, indicative and critical values of the indicator of the state of economic security
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.