Assessment of the State of Economic Security in Russia Using the Example of the Unemployment Rate Indicator: Fractal Analysis Method

Belyaev, Ivan I.; Ларионов, А. В.; Сильвестров, Сергей Николаевич

doi:10.1134/s1075700721020027

Cited by 13 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 6 publications

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“…Для оценки оперативного ИОЗ, вероятно, будет применяться меньшее количество показателей. Последнее связано с тем, что оперативный ИОЗ будет направлен на выявление факта роста рисков в сфере сохранения 10 Экономический анализ хозяйственной деятельности, под редакцией А.Д. Шеремета.…”

Section: определение показателей доступных для оценки иоз и его детер...unclassified

Methodological Approach to Organizing Public Health Monitoring in the Russian Federation

Vasilieva¹,

Ларионов²,

Russkikh³

et al. 2022

PH&LE

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Introduction: The World Health Organization has defined the term “public health” as a sociomedical resource and potential of the society but no common methodological approach to its assessment and implementation in the public administration system has been proposed so far. Our study reveals a methodological approach to organizing public health monitoring in the Russian Federation. The relevance of this study is related to the need to focus government regulation on improving the quality of life of citizens, which cannot be achieved without duly monitoring of public health, subsequent managerial decision-making, and ensuring the continuity of health care. Objective: To develop a methodological approach to organization of public health monitoring. Materials and methods: Foreign and Russian experience was reviewed and analyzed based on 37 regulations and scientific papers of foreign and domestic authors published from the year 2008 to the present. We have also systematized guidelines issued by the World Health Organization, the International Organization for Standardization, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to identify mandatory components of public health monitoring. The OECD “Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide” and the WHO “Urban Health Index” are used in determining the procedure for calculating public health indices. Results: We have developed the first methodological approach to constructing monitoring of public health in the Russian Federation that includes criteria of its evaluation as a sociomedical resource, involving calculation of the strategic and operational index of public health status. This approach reveals the order of implementation of organizational and process elements. Organizational elements are related to monitoring administration while process elements reveal the procedure for calculating public health indices. In addition to determining the indicative and critical values of the indices, it also seems appropriate to monitor individual indicators used in calculating the indices, such as the size of “population of pre-reproductive age”, “population under the working age”, “population covered by vaccination”, etc. Conclusion: The implementation of the methodological approach will ensure both the overall control of public health and monitoring of its individual areas. The calculation of the operational index will facilitate adjustment of actions of the authorities on a monthly basis while the assessment of the strategic index will increase the effectiveness of activities implemented within the framework of the strategic planning system.

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Section: определение показателей доступных для оценки иоз и его детер...unclassified

Methodological Approach to Organizing Public Health Monitoring in the Russian Federation

Vasilieva¹,

Ларионов²,

Russkikh³

et al. 2022

PH&LE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Development of the system of state financing of Compulsory Health Insurance

2022

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Objective: to study the potential for the development of financing the Compulsory Health Insurance (CHI) system in Russia.Material and methods. Оur research estimates the amount of funds available in the CHI system based on fractal analysis and ARIMA modeling. The proposed approach makes it possible to determine the critical amount of funds in the CHI system. Once the limit is reached, the chance of violating the economic security requirements will increase. Results. Аn increase in the volume of available funds in the CHI sector is expected in the mid-term perspective on the verge of quarter 1, 2023. The amount of funds required to pay for medical care for the respective period of time will increase by 0.77% quarterly.Conclusion. Gaining additional funds might be possible by optimizing the internal networks for generating cash flows in the CHI system, as well as applying additional ways of financing medical care (particularly Voluntary Health Insurance policies). It would be practical to redistribute the functions of financing health care between the Federal Fund for CHI and its territorial branches. It is essential to review the role of health insurance companies in monitoring the health care quality by improving the communication with citizens.

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Digital Ecosystems: Two-Faced Janus of the National State

Rozanova

2024

WEIR

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Economic security of the national state is traditionally considered to be implemented only at macro level of the national economy. However, a new reality of the XXI era has shown that the key aspects of the national security are being arisen at micro level of economic activity. Innovations have created not only new factors for prosperity but given birth to specific risks and novel threats for the national state. Digital ecosystems (DESs) that have just come to light have been generating a host of state threatening consequences. Nowadays most if not all of the largest world companies are parts of digital ecosystems. Market capitalization, total sales and total business operations of the digital ecosystems equal or even exceed the gross domestic product of many independent states. A typical profile of a digital ecosystem comprises such characteristics as self-regulation and independent business; vague industry and geographic frontiers; absence of clear inner structural elements within the firm; absence or minimization of material (brick-and-stone) assets. The services of the digital ecosystems lie in a variety of highly different production, transportation, market, and after-market spheres including finance and logistics. The intangible power of DESs is based on ICT technology, e. g., M2M and IoT, which could work in an autonomous regime even off Wi-Fi areas. Cloud computing, fog computing and edge computing allow to storage and manipulate big data over the firms’ boundaries and stay off the government control. Although M2M interactions are good for telemedicine, industrial security, payment systems, etc., smart digital activity of DESs might be harmful for national economic security. Firstly, as digital ecosystems are collecting huge amount of private data, they have access to more subtle behavioral aspects of individuals than government offices. Using their private databases, DESs could influence clients in both economic and political areas. Secondly, digital cartels could implement brand-new types of price discrimination which are out of government regulations. Dynamic pricing in both sides of the digital platforms (for content providers and for consumers) could add to national inflation rates. Thirdly, information that is used to elaborate and implement government economic policy could be easily manipulated within DESs due to low quality of IT operators or because of hacker-driven misinformation. It means that the critically important statistics are in fact in the hands of the digital ecosystems, which have been transforming into tacit co-partners of government economic and social policy. In social sphere DESs have introduced a special business model, that is, worker-on-demand. Like video on demand or car sharing, employees can be hired temporarily with no labour contracts, no social security plans, no any feasible limitations on time, place, and conditions of work. Quantity of labour force, level of wages, and other important elements of working life are in the hands of algorithmic management, a special IT program elaborated by DESs’ specialists in the interests of the DESs. Such practices of labour market undermine the government social policy and increase social tensions. Digital ecosystems have changed labour resources in the direction of cyber wars. In order to defense their own infrastructure and virtual space of their activity, DESs are in the process of establishing their own cyber-army. The DES employees usually act as potential (and actual sometimes) cyber-worriers in detecting and eliminating unsanctioned penetration in digital nets of the company. The problems of digital ecosystems having too much economic power are being under consideration in many countries. For example, in China in 2021 the government replaced its former liberal IT policy for tight IT regulation of DESs. Thus, thinking about national economic security, we should take into account a new digital reality in forms of digital ecosystems and their desire (consciously or unconsciously) to substitute national state in its significant economic and social functions.

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Assessment of the State of Economic Security in Russia Using the Example of the Unemployment Rate Indicator: Fractal Analysis Method

Cited by 13 publications

References 6 publications

Methodological Approach to Organizing Public Health Monitoring in the Russian Federation

Methodological Approach to Organizing Public Health Monitoring in the Russian Federation

Development of the system of state financing of Compulsory Health Insurance

Digital Ecosystems: Two-Faced Janus of the National State

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