The first coronavirus NСoV-B814 was isolated from humans in 1965 and did not survive to the present time. For a long time, it was believed that coronaviruses were not pathogenic to humans. They were not included in the list of particularly dangerous infections and represented a serious problem exclusively in veterinary medicine. But in 2002, after the SARS outbreak, scientists’ opinions changed. A new subtype of the coronavirus called SARS-CoV penetrated the human population. In 2012, it was possible to discover natural foci of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. The epidemic of a new coronavirus infection that emerged in late 2019 and early 2020 attracted the attention of scientists around the world. The priority was a detailed and close study of all the varieties of this virus. This review describes seven types of coronaviruses that can cause emergencies in populations around the world.
Objective: to identify some «internal» and «external» risks that are signifi cant for the Rostov region and calculate their quantitative characteristics.Materials and methods: materials for «internal» risks in the administrative territories of the Rostov region served materials FBUZ «Center of hygiene and epidemiology in the Rostov region» on the incidence of Crimean hemorrhagic fever (KGL) and West Nile (LSN) during the period 2004 – 2017 as a whole across the Rostov region and the slit regions, the data of the regional law «About administrative-territorial structure of Rostov region», the Results of the national census. To determine the «internal» risks, we used the guidelines developed by us «Methodology for assessing the territory of the subject of the Russian Federation on the integral indicator of population morbidity with arbovirus infections», approved by Th e decision of the Academic Council of the Rostov-on-Don anti-plague Institute of Rospotrebnadzor and approved by the Director.Results: based on the results of the ranking of the territory of the Rostov region on the incidence of KGL and LDL, the degree of epidemiological risk was assessed and «risk territories» were identifi ed for these nosologies, which can serve as a basis for risk management — making scientifi cally based management decisions. To calculate the magnitude of the «external» risk and further spread of the disease, you can use various methods to assess the probability of adverse development of the epidemiological situation under the infl uence of various risk factors. Epidemiological risk can also be characterized by multiplying the individual risk by the population exposed to risk factors.Conclusions: identifi cation and calculation of risk levels depending on risk factors will help determine the scope of management decisions, and the specifi cation of risk factors will allow you to develop specifi c measures to reduce risk.
Ростовская областная станция по борьбе с болезнями животных с противоэпизоотическим отрядом, Ростов-на-Дону, Россия Цель: определение степени эпизоотолого-эпидемиологической опасности территории Ростовской области по сибирской язве для совершенствования эпидемиологического надзора за этой инфекцией с использованием ГИСтехнологий. Материалы и методы: в работе использованы данные о заболеваемости сибирской язвой (СЯЗ) людей и животных, о наличии сибиреязвенных захоронений животных; применены методы ретроспективного эпидемиологического анализа, формальной логики, статистический метод и метод компьютерного моделирования. Результаты: комплексная оценка риска позволила определить степень эпизоотолого-эпидемиологической опасности по сибирской язве для каждого района Ростовской области и выявить районы повышенного риска. Выводы: Проведенное районирование территории Ростовской области по сибирской язве будет способствовать совершенствованию эпидемиологического надзора за этой инфекцией. Ключевые слова: сибирская язва, сибиреязвенные захоронения, эпизоотолого-эпидемиологическая опасность.
Summary. Introduction: As of today, acute viral upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) remain the most common diseases in the world and the Russian Federation and one of the most important problems of national health care. The objective of our work was to study the dynamics and intensity of the epidemic process of influenza and other URTIs in the Russian Federation and Rostov Region over a thirty-year period and to establish the main features of the disease incidence in the Rostov Region. Materials and methods: We analyzed data of annual State Reports on Sanitary and Epidemiological Wellbeing of the Population in the Russian Federation and Statistical Form No. 2 on information about infectious and parasitic diseases for the period 1990–2019 and data on the size of population using StatSoft STATISTICA 6.1.478 Russian, Microsoft Excel, and NextGIS QGIS software. Results: We found that in 1990–1999, 2000–2009, and 2010–2019, regional URTI rates tended to decrease in each subsequent decade compared to the previous one. The long-term incidence rate of URTIs in the Rostov Region was 16,099.2 ± (2.045 × 384.2) ‰оо, lower than the Russian average rate of 19,710.3 ± (2.045 × 326.4) (p = 0.05). The amplitude of fluctuations in the incidence was 8,015.4 ‰оо and 7,619.6 ‰оо in the Rostov Region and the Russian Federation, respectively. Until 1997, regional incidence rates were comparable to the national averages but demonstrated an upward trend since the year 2000. We revealed unevenness of the course of the epidemic process related to cyclicity, with an increase in the duration of cycles since 1998. It was determined that the regional incidence of influenza was significantly lower than the national average and had a tendency to decrease. The long-term influenza rate in the Rostov Region was 412.4 ± (2.045 × 131.3) (p = 0.05) or almost three times lower than that in the country 1,553.0 ± (2.045 × 301.2) (p = 0.05). The dynamics of influenza incidence in the Rostov Region also had a cyclical course with a smaller amplitude of fluctuations (3,215.1 ‰оо) than in the Russian Federation (5,164.8 ‰оо). The duration of epidemic cycles in 1990–1998 and 2002–2012 was two years but we noted a three-year cycle in 1999–2001. We established a correlation between influenza and URTI rates and population density in regional cities and various age groups: the highest URTI rates (74.9 %) were registered in children between two to 17 years of age while 52.5 % of influenza cases were adults (aged 18+). Conclusion: The established characteristics of the development of the epidemic process of influenza and URTIs in the Rostov Region prove the necessity of a differentiated approach to organizing and implementing comprehensive preventive measures within optimization of epidemiological surveillance of these diseases, and can also serve as basic criteria for disease prediction.
Relevance. The conceptual task of epidemiological surveillance as part of the sanitary protection of the territory of the Russian Federation (RF) from the importation and spread of diseases that pose a danger to the population at the present stage is to identify potential risks of a sanitary and еpidemic emergency and prompt response if they occur. Epidemic manifestations of diseases caused by new respiratory viruses, in most cases, cause a crisis in public health, which indicates the need for a comprehensive study of the features of their course, determination of criteria for the potential risk of an emergency of an еpidemic nature, which will make it possible to timely organize a complex of anti-epidemic (preventive) measures. Aim. Study, systematize and stratify the features of the atypical course of the epidemic process of acute respiratory viral infections caused by new variants of the pathogen in a city with a population of more than one million people. Materials and methods. The study used retrospective data on infectious morbidity in different age groups from government reports for the period 2015–2020, data from annual forms No. 2 of the federal state statistical observation for the period 2009–2020. Rospotrebnadzor Administration for the Rostov Region, Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Rostov Region. Statistical data processing was carried out by a generally accepted method. Results. The analysis showed that the periods 2009–2010, 2015–2016, 2020–2021 had significant changes in the epidemic process in relation to its typical long-term course with a predominance in the structure of the incidence of ARVI, including influenza and new coronavirus infection, of various age groups for each period, an atypically severe infectious process and an increase in the number of community-acquired pneumonia. Moreover, in the periods 2009–2010, 2015–2016. Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus was dominant in the etiological structure, in 2020–2021 – the causative agent of the new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2. Thus, the features of the epidemic (against the backdrop of a pandemic) spread of ARVI in Rostov-on-Don, established as a result of a retrospective analysis, made it possible to differentiate the main-external and internal-risks of the formation of emergencies of an еpidemic nature associated with new respiratory viruses in a city with a population of more than one million people.
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