Background
Few surgical studies have provided adjusted comparative postoperative outcome data among contemporary patients with and without COVID-19 infection and patients treated before the pandemic. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of performing emergency surgery in patients with concomitant COVID-19 infection.
Methods
Patients who underwent emergency general and gastrointestinal surgery from March to June 2020, and from March to June 2019 in 25 Spanish hospitals were included in a retrospective study (COVID-CIR). The main outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included postoperative complications and failure to rescue (mortality among patients who developed complications). Propensity score-matched comparisons were performed between patients who were positive and those who were negative for COVID-19; and between COVID-19-negative cohorts before and during the pandemic.
Results
Some 5307 patients were included in the study (183 COVID-19-positive and 2132 COVID-19-negative during pandemic; 2992 treated before pandemic). During the pandemic, patients with COVID-19 infection had greater 30-day mortality than those without (12.6 versus 4.6 per cent), but this difference was not statistically significant after propensity score matching (odds ratio (OR) 1.58, 95 per cent c.i. 0.88 to 2.74). Those positive for COVID-19 had more complications (41.5 versus 23.9 per cent; OR 1.61, 1.11 to 2.33) and a higher likelihood of failure to rescue (30.3 versus 19.3 per cent; OR 1.10, 0.57 to 2.12). Patients who were negative for COVID-19 during the pandemic had similar rates of 30-day mortality (4.6 versus 3.2 per cent; OR 1.35, 0.98 to 1.86) and complications (23.9 versus 25.2 per cent; OR 0.89, 0.77 to 1.02), but a greater likelihood of failure to rescue (19.3 versus 12.9 per cent; OR 1.56, 95 per cent 1.10 to 2.19) than prepandemic controls.
Conclusion
Patients with COVID-19 infection undergoing emergency general and gastrointestinal surgery had worse postoperative outcomes than contemporary patients without COVID-19. COVID-19-negative patients operated on during the COVID-19 pandemic had a likelihood of greater failure-to-rescue than prepandemic controls.
Infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus seems to contribute significantly to increased postoperative complications and mortality after emergency surgical procedures. Additionally, the fear of COVID-19 contagion delays the consultation of patients, resulting in the deterioration of their acute diseases by the time of consultation. In the specific case of urgent digestive surgery patients, both factors significantly worsen the postoperative course and prognosis. Main working hypothesis: infection by COVID-19 increases postoperative 30-day-mortality for any cause in patients submitted to emergency/urgent general or gastrointestinal surgery. Likewise, hospital collapse during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic increased 30-day-mortality for any cause. Hence, the main objective of this study is to estimate the cumulative incidence of mortality at 30-days-after-surgery. Secondary objectives are: to estimate the cumulative incidence of postoperative complications and to develop a specific postoperative risk propensity model for COVID-19-infected patients.
A multicenter, observational retrospective cohort study (COVID-CIR-study) will be carried out in consecutive patients operated on for urgent digestive pathology. Two cohorts will be defined: the “pandemic” cohort, which will include all patients (classified as COVID-19-positive or -negative) operated on for emergency digestive pathology during the months of March to June 2020; and the “control” cohort, which will include all patients operated on for emergency digestive pathology during the months of March to June 2019. Information will be gathered on demographic characteristics, clinical and analytical parameters, scores on the usual prognostic scales for quality management in a General Surgery service (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and LUCENTUM scores), prognostic factors applicable to all patients, specific prognostic factors for patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, postoperative morbidity and mortality (at 30 and 90 postoperative days). The main objective is to estimate the cumulative incidence of mortality at 30 days after surgery. As secondary objectives, to estimate the cumulative incidence of postoperative complications and to develop a specific postoperative risk propensity model for SARS-CoV-2 infected patients.
The protocol (version1.0, April 20th 2020) was approved by the local Institutional Review Board (Ethic-and-Clinical-Investigation-Committee, code PR169/20, date 05/05/20). The study findings will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals and presented at relevant national and international scientific meetings.
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04479150 (July 21, 2020).
Background
COVID-19 infection is associated with a higher mortality rate in surgical patients, but surgical risk scores have not been validated in the emergency setting. We aimed to study the capacity for postoperative mortality prediction of the P-POSSUM score in COVID-19-positive patients submitted to emergency general and digestive surgery.
Material and methods
Consecutive patients undergoing emergency general and digestive surgery from March to June 2020, and from March to June 2019 in 25 Spanish hospitals were included in a retrospective cohort study. Main outcome: 30-day mortality. P-POSSUM discrimination was quantified by the area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves; calibration was assessed by linear regression slope (β estimator); and sensitivity and specificity were expressed as percentage and 95% confidence interval (CI).
Results
4988 patients were included: 177 COVID-19-positive; 2011 intra-pandemic COVID-19-negative; and 2800 pre-pandemic. COVID-19-positive patients were older, with higher surgical risk, more advanced pathologies, and higher P-POSSUM values (1.79% vs. 1.09%, p < 0.001, in both the COVID-19-negative and control cohort). 30-day mortality in the COVID-19-positive, intra-pandemic COVID-19-negative and pre-pandemic cohorts were: 12.9%, 4.6%, and 3.2%. The P-POSSUM predictive values in the three cohorts were, respectively: AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.81–0.95), 0.89 (95% CI 0.87–0.92), and 0.91 (95% CI 0.88–0.93); β value 0.97 (95% CI 0.74–1.2), 0.99 (95% CI 0.82–1.16), and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.82); sensitivity 83% (95% CI 61–95), 91% (95% CI 84–96), and 89% (95% CI 80–94); and specificity 81% (95% CI 74–87), 76% (95% CI 74–78), and 80% (95% CI 79–82).
Conclusion
The P-POSSUM score showed a good predictive capacity for postoperative mortality in COVID-19-positive patients submitted to emergency general and digestive surgery.
Highlights
Twenty-six percent of the polytrauma patients presented early coagulopathy assessed by thromboelastography. It is associated with higher consumption of blood products and lower survival. The presence of hypocoagulability +hyperfibrinolysis is associated with greater severity and a higher requirement of blood products.
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