With the increasing problem of global warming caused by the massive use of fossil fuels, biomass energy as a renewable energy source has attracted widespread attention throughout the globe. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variation in wind energy in the East Asia and Western Pacific areas using IGRA site data, ERA5, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 2000 to 2021, and multi-variate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) decomposition with the Pettitt mutation test, and the seasonal autoregression integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to predict the trend of wind speed. The spatial and temporal variations in wind energy in East Asia and Western Pacific areas were analyzed, and it was found that the richer wind-energy resources were mainly concentrated in the “Three Norths” (North China, Northwest China, and Northeast China) and Mongolia, followed by the Western Pacific areas. In addition, the T’ai-hang Mountains and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China block the wind resources in the eastern and southern regions of East Asia, resulting in a shortage of wind resources in this region. In addition, the summer wind speed is significantly lower than in the other three seasons. The first-mode contributions of the MV-EOF wind field and geopotential heights, respectively, are 29.47% and 37.75%. The results show that: (1) There are significant seasonal differences in wind-energy resources in the study area, with the lowest wind speed in summer and the highest wind speed in winter. (2) The wind energy in the study area has significant regional characteristics. For example, China’s Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang region, and Mongolia are rich in wind-energy resources. (3) Wind-energy resources in the study area have gradually increased since 2010, mainly due to changes in large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns caused by global warming.
Given the increasing impact of extreme rainfall and flooding on human life, studying and predicting changes in atmospheric water vapor (AWV) becomes particularly important. This paper analyzes the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data of the East Asian region from January 2003 to February 2023. The AWV data are examined in the time and frequency domain using methods such as empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Mann–Kendall (MK) analysis, and others. Additionally, four prediction models are applied to forecast the monthly average AWV data for the next year. The accuracy of these models is evaluated using metrics such as mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The findings reveal several key insights: (1) The East Asian region exhibits highly variable seasonal variability in AWV, with identified mutation points after the MK test. (2) Spatial analysis shows high AWV data in the southern coastal areas of China, Thailand, Myanmar, Nansha Islands, and other regions during winter, while the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region experiences low AWV during summer. (3) The first mode obtained through EOF decomposition contributes over 60% of the variance. Analysis of this mode reveals an increasing trend in AWV data for regions such as the Indian peninsula, Mongolia, and central and northeastern China over the past nine years. Conversely, the Bay of Bengal, Spratly Islands, eastern coast, and certain areas display a decreasing trend. (4) Employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), the study identifies AWV data as a non-stationary series with an overall decreasing trend from 2003 to 2022. The filtered AWV series undergoes fast Fourier transform (FFT), uncovering periodicities of 2.6 years, 5 years, and 19 years. (5) Among the four forecasting models compared, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) demonstrates superior performance with the smallest MSE of 0.00782, MAE of 0.06977, RMSE of 0.08843, and the largest R2 value of 0.98454. These results clearly indicate that the SARIMA model provides the best fit. Therefore, the SARIMA forecasting model can be effectively utilized for forecasting AWV data, offering valuable insights for studying weather variability.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.