We explore the financial sustainability of a typical U.S. state civil servants pension fund under the continuation of current policies and under alternative policies, such as changes in contribution, indexation and investment allocation policies. Applying the value-based asset-liability management method, we find that all participant cohorts derive substantial net benefit from the current pension contract, while all tax-paying cohorts have to make substantial contributions. The proposed adjustment measures can alleviate a substantial part of the burden on tax payers, although at the cost of the fund participants. Especially a policy of conditional inflation indexation seems promising.
Dit paper doet verslag van een studie naar de mogelijke intergenerationele herverdeling binnen de 2 e pijler pensioenen die kunnen optreden bij de implementatie van de voorstellen uit het Pensioenakkoord. De conclusie is dat niet zonder meer gesteld kan worden dat de voorstellen van het pensioenakkoord leiden tot het systematisch bevoordelen of benadelen van specifieke generaties ten opzichte van het huidige pensioencontract. Voor elk van de afzonderlijke stappen in de aanpassing van het pensioencontract zijn er voor de verschillende groepen grote voordelen of nadelen te onderkennen. Het resulterende effect voor de onderscheidbare generaties is dat de voor-en nadelen deels tegen elkaar wegvallen.
We explore how the contract values of the various stakeholders of a typical US state civil servants pension fund are affected under the continuation of current policies and under alternative policies, such as changes in contribution, indexation and investment allocation policies. We find that all participant cohorts derive a substantial net benefit from the current pension contract, while all tax-paying cohorts make substantial contributions. The shift in value from tax payers to participants can be reduced substantially by having the latter make larger contributions or making indexation less generous. Under our baseline calibration, and continuation of existing policies, the chances are high that the fund's assets get depleted in the coming decades.
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