BackgroundScrub typhus is becoming the most common vector born disease in Guangzhou, southern China. In this study, we aimed to examine the effect of weather patterns on the incidence of Scrub typhus in the subtropical city of Guangzhou for the period 2006–2012, and assist public health prevention and control measures.MethodsScrub typhus reported cases during the period of 2006–2012 in Guangzhou were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS). Simultaneous meteorological data including temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, sunshine, and rainfall were obtained from the documentation of the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial regression was used to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and scrub typhus.ResultsAnnual incidence rates of scrub typhus from 2006 to 2012 were 3.25, 2.67, 3.81, 4.22, 4.41, 5.12, and 9.75 (per 100 000) respectively. Each 1°C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 14.98% (95% CI 13.65% to 16.33%) in the monthly number of scrub typhus cases, while a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 8.03% (95% CI −8.75% to −7.31%). Similarly, a 1 hour rise in sunshine corresponded to an increase of 0.17% or 0.54%, and a 1 millimeter rise in rainfall corresponded to an increase of 0.05% or 0.10%, in the monthly number of scrub typhus cases, depending on the variables considered in the model.ConclusionOur study provided evidence that climatic factors were associated with occurrence of scrub typhus in Guangzhou city, China. Temperature, duration of sunshine, and rainfall were positively associated with scrub typhus incidence, while atmospheric pressure was inversely associated with scrub typhus incidence. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of scrub typhus transmission.

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Northern China is one of the most densely populated regions in the world. Agricultural activities have intensified since the 1980s to provide food security to the country. However, this intensification has likely contributed to an increasing scarcity in water resources, which may in turn be endangering food security. Based on in-situ measurements of soil moisture collected in agricultural plots during 1983–2012, we find that topsoil (0–50 cm) volumetric water content during the growing season has declined significantly (p < 0.01), with a trend of −0.011 to −0.015 m3 m−3 per decade. Observed discharge declines for the three large river basins are consistent with the effects of agricultural intensification, although other factors (e.g. dam constructions) likely have contributed to these trends. Practices like fertilizer application have favoured biomass growth and increased transpiration rates, thus reducing available soil water. In addition, the rapid proliferation of water-expensive crops (e.g., maize) and the expansion of the area dedicated to food production have also contributed to soil drying. Adoption of alternative agricultural practices that can meet the immediate food demand without compromising future water resources seem critical for the sustainability of the food production system.

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