Rationale: Several studies have estimated basic production number of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). However, the time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP during the outbreak remain unclear. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the basic and time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP across China, and compared them with SARS. Methods: Data on NCP cases by February 7, 2020 were collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing and Hong Kong during 2002-2003 were also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R0) and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of NCP and SARS. Measurements and main results: As of February 7, 2020, 34,598 NCP cases were identified in China, and daily confirmed cases decreased after February 4. The doubling time of NCP nationwide was 2.4 days which was shorter than that of SARS in Guangdong (14.3 days), Hong Kong (5.7 days) and Beijing (12.4 days). The R0 of NCP cases nationwide and in Wuhan were 4.5 and 4.4 respectively, which were higher than R0 of SARS in Guangdong (R0=2.3), Hongkong (R0=2.3), and Beijing (R0=2.6). The Rt for NCP continuously decreased especially after January 16 nationwide and in Wuhan. The R0 for secondary NCP cases in Guangdong was 0.6, and the Rt values were less than 1 during the epidemic. Conclusions:NCP may have a higher transmissibility than SARS, and the efforts of containing the outbreak are effective.However, the efforts are needed to persist in for reducing time-varying reproduction number below one. now named as Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP), occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The disease has rapidly spread from Wuhan to other areas. As a novel virus, the time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP remain unclear, and it is also important to compare it with SARS.What This Study Adds to the Field: We compared the transmission dynamics of NCP with SARS, and found that NCP has a higher transmissibility than SARS. Time-varying production number indicates that rigorous control measures taken by governments are effective across China, and persistent efforts are needed to be taken for reducing instantaneous reproduction number below one. author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
This study aimed to estimate the attack rates, and identify the risk factors of COVID-19 infection. Based on a retrospective cohort study, we investigated 11,580 contacts of COVID-19 cases in Guangdong Province from 10 January to 15 March 2020. All contacts were tested by RT-PCR to detect their infection of SARS-COV-2. Attack rates by characteristics were calculated. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk factors of infection for COVID-19. A total of 515 of 11,580 contacts were identified to be infected with SARS-COV-2. Compared to young adults aged 20-29 years, the infected risk was higher in children (RR: 2.59, 95%CI: 1.79-3.76), and old people aged 60-69 years (RR: 5.29, 95%CI: 3.76-7.46). Females also had higher infected risk (RR: 1.66, 95%CI: 1.39-2.00). People having close relationship with index cases encountered higher infected risk (
C ardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the world. It is responsible for ≈30% of all deaths or ≈17.5 million people in 2012.1 As the major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, hypertension has been identified as the most important cause of disability and the leading risk factor for death globally and causes ≈16.5% of all deaths.2 The causes of hypertension are complex and are related to genetic factors, lifestyle, diet structure, and environmental factors, including air pollution.3 Since the 1990s, many epidemiological studies have investigated the associations between air pollution exposure and hypertension. However, the results remain controversial. Some studies have shown an association, 4-8 whereas other studies have found either no association or an association only for selected pollutants or limitation based on short-term or long-term exposure.9-12 These inconsistent and controversial results indicate the need to quantitatively synthesize and interpret the available evidence to provide more explicit information for policy decisions and clinical use. Meta-analysis is the most commonly used statistical technique to quantitatively synthesize results from ≥2 separate studies. 13 To our knowledge, there is only one meta-analysis that summarized the association between exposure to traffic-related air pollution and hypertension.14 However, this study included only cohort studies conducted in the Europe and mainly focused on the traffic-related air pollutants, which might limit the external validity of their findings. Therefore, more such meta-analyses are urgently needed.The previous published studies on hypertension and air pollution can be broadly divided into 2 categories: short-term and long-term studies. The former estimate the acute effects of air pollution exposure and mostly include time-series analyses over a few days. The latter evaluate the chronic effects of air pollution, such as cohort survival analyses over years of exposure. 15The short-term and long-term effects of air pollution may have Abstract-Hypertension is a major disease of burden worldwide. Previous studies have indicated that air pollution might be a risk factor for hypertension, but the results were controversial. To fill this gap, we performed a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies to investigate the associations of short-term and long-term exposure to ambient air pollutants with hypertension. We searched all of the studies published before September 1, 2015, on the associations of ozone (O 3 ), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NO 2 and NO X ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate matter (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) with hypertension in the English electronic databases. A pooled odds ratio (OR) for hypertension in association with each 10 μg/m 3 increase in air pollutant was calculated by a random-effects model (for studies with significant heterogeneity) or a fixed-effect model (for studies without significant heterogeneity). A total of 17 studies examining the effects of short-term (n=6) and long-term exposure ...
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.