Climate shocks can increase uncertainty in agricultural production. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study examines the impact of climate shocks on farmers’ productive investment and its mechanism of village public productive investment. The study found the following: (1) The impact of climate shocks have a significant impact on farmers’ productive investment choices. Farmers who are greatly impacted by climate shocks have a significantly lower probability of increasing their total productive investment. (2) In terms of investment content, climate shocks will reduce farmers’ investment in machinery (invest1) and investment in the cost of seeds, fertilizers and pesticides (invest3) and increase investment in agricultural productive services (invest2). (3) However, there is heterogeneity in the village climate characteristics and farmers’ risk preferences in this result. (4) From the perspective of the transmission mechanism, village public production investment has a moderating effect between climate shocks and farmer agricultural production investment. For total investment and invest3, village public production investment will weaken the main effect of climate shock, significantly reduce the impact of climate shock, and alleviate the inhibitory effect of climate shocks on farmers’ investment. Agricultural productive services (invest2) will strengthen the main effect of climate shocks and promote farmer households’ agricultural productive service investment. The article finally concludes and discusses some policy implications.
Climate change is widespread, rapid, and is intensifying. Using Chinese disaster data and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, this study examines the impact of climate shocks on the vulnerability of farm households to poverty and the mechanism of household resource allocation in this process. The results show that (a) climate shocks can significantly increase the poverty vulnerability of farm households. (b) The effect of climate shocks on farm household poverty vulnerability is regionally and individually heterogeneous. Climate non-security zones, risk-averse farmers, and low social capital farmers are more vulnerable to climate shocks and fall into poverty. (c) The mediating effects suggest that climate shocks affect the poverty vulnerability of farm households by influencing their developmental investment, productive investment, and precautionary saving. The paper finally concludes and discusses some policy implications in the national response to climate change and transformation of farmers’ livelihoods.
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