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Previous estimates of tropical forest carbon loss in the twenty-first century using satellite data typically focus on its magnitude, whereas regional loss trajectories and associated drivers are rarely reported. Here we used different high-resolution satellite datasets to show a doubling of gross tropical forest carbon loss worldwide from 0.97 ± 0.16 PgC yr−1 in 2001–2005 to 1.99 ± 0.13 PgC yr−1 in 2015–2019. This increase in carbon loss from forest conversion is higher than in bookkeeping models forced by land-use statistical data, which show no trend or a slight decline in land-use emissions in the early twenty-first century. Most (82%) of the forest carbon loss is at some stages associated with large-scale commodity or small-scale agriculture activities, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. We find that ~70% of former forest lands converted to agriculture in 2001–2019 remained so in 2020, confirming a dominant role of agriculture in long-term pan-tropical carbon reductions on formerly forested landscapes. The acceleration and high rate of forest carbon loss in the twenty-first century suggest that existing strategies to reduce forest loss are not successful; and this failure underscores the importance of monitoring deforestation trends following the new pledges made in Glasgow.

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The long‐term evaluation of regional‐scale groundwater quality needs efficient upscaling methods for transient flow. Upscaling techniques, such as the Multirate Mass Transfer (MRMT) method with constant upscaling parameters, have been used for transport with steady‐state flow, yet the upscaling parameters (i.e., rate coefficients) may be time dependent. This study proposed and validated an adaptive MRMT (aMMT) method by allowing the mass transfer coefficients in MRMT to change with the flow field. Advective‐dispersive contaminant transport simulated in a 3‐D heterogeneous medium was used as a reference solution. Equivalent transport under homogeneous flow conditions was evaluated by applying the MRMT and aMMT models for upscaling. The relationship between mass transfer coefficients and flow rates was fitted under steady‐state flow driven by various hydraulic gradients. A power law relationship was obtained, which was then used to update the mass transfer coefficients in each stress period under transient flow conditions in the aMMT method. Results indicated that for advection‐dominated transport, both the MRMT and aMMT methods can upscale the anomalous transport dynamics affected by subgrid heterogeneity under transient flow conditions. Whereas for diffusion‐dominated systems, the MRMT model failed to capture the tails of tracer breakthrough curves after the boundary condition changed, but the results from the aMMT model were significantly improved. However, if the overall flow direction changed, both MRMT and aMMT failed to represent the breakthrough curve tail generated by the heterogeneous system. The results point toward a promising path for upscaling transport in complex aquifers with transient flow.

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Regional scale transport models are needed to support the long‐term evaluation of groundwater quality and to develop management strategies aiming to prevent serious groundwater degradation. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the capacity of a previously developed upscaling approach to adequately describe the main solute transport processes, including the capture of late‐time tails under changing boundary conditions. Potential factors that impact the performance of upscaling methods, including temporal variations in mass transfer rates and mass distributions, were investigated. Advective‐dispersive contaminant transport in a 3‐D heterogeneous domain was simulated and used as a reference solution. The equivalent transport under homogeneous flow conditions was then evaluated by applying the multirate mass transfer (MRMT) model. The random walk particle tracking method was used to solve the solute transport for heterogeneous and homogeneous MRMT scenarios under steady state and transient conditions. The results indicate that the MRMT model can capture the tails satisfactorily for plumes transported with ambient steady state flow fields at all studied scales using the same parameters. However, when the boundary conditions change in either local, plume, or regional scale, the mass transfer model calibrated for transport under steady state conditions cannot accurately reproduce the tailings observed for the heterogeneous scenario. The deteriorating impacts of transient boundary conditions on the upscaled model are more significant for regions where the flow fields are dramatically affected, which highlights the poor applicability of the MRMT approach for complex field settings. This finding also has implications for the suitability of other potential upscaling approaches.

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