Millions of Californians access drinking water via domestic wells, which are vulnerable to drought and unsustainable groundwater management. Groundwater overdraft and the possibility of longer drought duration under climate change threatens domestic well reliability, yet we lack tools to assess the impact of such events. Here, we leverage 943 469 well completion reports and 20 years of groundwater elevation data to develop a spatially-explicit domestic well failure model covering California's Central Valley. Our model successfully reproduces the spatial distribution of observed domestic well failures during the severe 2012-2016 drought (n = 2027). Next, the impact of longer drought duration (5-8 years) on domestic well failure is evaluated, indicating that if the 2012-2016 drought would have continued into a 6 to 8 year long drought, a total of 4037-5460 to 6538-8056 wells would fail. The same drought duration scenarios with an intervening wet winter in 2017 lead to an average of 498 and 738 fewer well failures. Additionally, we map vulnerable wells at high failure risk and find that they align with clusters of predicted well failures. Lastly, we evaluate how the timing and implementation of different projected groundwater management regimes impact groundwater levels and thus domestic well failure. When historic overdraft persists until 2040, domestic well failures range from 5966 to 10 466 (depending on the historic period considered). When sustainability is achieved progressively between 2020 and 2040, well failures range from 3677 to 6943, and from 1516 to 2513 when groundwater is not allowed to decline after 2020.

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Population growth, climate uncertainties, and unsustainable groundwater pumping challenge aquifer sustainability worldwide. Efficient and data-driven groundwater supply management is a necessity to maintain essential water-dependent functions. Currently, managers lack the cost-effective, scalable, and reliable groundwater monitoring systems needed to collect vital groundwater data. Existing automated groundwater monitoring systems tend to be cost-prohibitive, and manual methods lack the spatial or temporal resolution to sufficiently meet critical water modeling, management, and policy objectives. In this study, we developed a fully automated, open source, low cost wireless sensor network (LCSN) for real-time groundwater data acquisition, processing, and visualization in the South American Subbasin Groundwater Observatory (GWO), located in California, USA. We demonstrate the steps taken to create the GWO, including field, hardware, software, and data pipeline components so that it may be easily reproduced in new areas. We find that the GWO is comparable in cost to manual measurements at a weekly measurement frequency, and costs between three and four times less than comparable commercially available telemetry and dashboard systems, largely due to the use of free open source software to acquire, clean, store, and visualize data. The open source-powered GWO thus lowers the financial and technical barrier of entry for real-time groundwater monitoring, creating the potential for more informed water management worldwide, particularly in regions whose managers are restricted by the high capital costs of commercial monitoring systems.

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Growing demands on water supply worldwide have resulted in aquifer overdraft in many regions, especially in alluvial basins under intensive irrigation. This further leads to serious deterioration of groundwater quality. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) has been shown to mitigate groundwater overdraft, but whether MAR can actually stabilize or reverse the ongoing declines in regional groundwater quality caused by non‐point sources has not been demonstrated. This study was intended to address the question by investigating impacts of different MAR strategies on regional groundwater quality. A geostatistical model was first used to characterize a heterogeneous alluvial aquifer system in a portion of the Tulare Lake Basin. Three‐dimensional numerical models were then employed to simulate groundwater flow and mass transport. Next, MAR strategies were applied in locations with different geological conditions or joint with different irrigation activities, and their performances were evaluated. Results demonstrate the potential of significant, long‐term benefits for regional groundwater quality by applying strategic, high‐intensity recharge operations on geologically favorable subregions. Siting MAR above the incised valley fill (IVF) deposit, a near‐surface paleochannel containing unusually coarse, high‐conductivity hydrofacies, leads to more extensive improvement in the groundwater quality in terms of salinity due to significant vertical flow and lateral outward flow from the IVF. Overall, decades would be required to alleviate groundwater quality concerns in the studied 189 km2 region. The simulations indicate that the deep concentrations remain below the secondary maximum contaminant level as the solute mass migrates downward with the prominent contribution from the attenuation via dispersion and matrix diffusion.