Game-theoretic models have been used to analyze design problems ranging from multi-objective design optimization to decentralized design and from design for market systems (DFMS) to policy design. However, existing studies are primarily analytical in nature, which start with a number of assumptions about the individual decisions, the information available to the players, and the solution concept (generally, the Nash equilibrium). There is a lack of studies related to engineering design, which rigorously evaluate the validity of these assumptions or that of the predictions from the models. Hence, the usefulness of these models to realistic engineering systems design has been severely limited. In this paper, we take a step toward addressing this gap. Using an example of crowdsourcing for engineering design, we illustrate how the analytical game-theoretic models and behavioral experimentation can be synergistically used to gain a better understanding of design situations. Analytical models describe what players with assumed behaviors and cognitive capabilities would do under specified conditions, and the behavioral experiments shed light on how individuals actually behave. The paper contributes to the design literature in multiple ways. First, to the best of our knowledge, it is a first attempt at integrated theoretical and experimental game-theoretic analysis in design. We illustrate how the analytical models can be used to design behavioral experiments, which, in turn, can be used to estimate parameters, refine models, and inform further development of the theory. Second, we present a simple experiment to understand behaviors of individuals in a design crowdsourcing problem. The results of the experiment show new insights on using crowdsourcing contests for design.
The primary motivation in this paper is to understand decision-making in design under competition from both prescriptive and descriptive perspectives. Engineering design is often carried out under competition from other designers or firms, where each competitor invests effort with the hope of getting a contract, attracting customers, or winning a prize. One such scenario of design under competition is crowdsourcing where designers compete for monetary prizes. Within existing literature, such competitive scenarios have been studied using models from contest theory, which are based on assumptions of rationality and equilibrium. Although these models are general enough for different types of contests, they do not address the unique characteristics of design decision-making, e.g., strategies related to the design process, the sequential nature of design decisions, the evolution of strategies, and heterogeneity among designers. In this paper, we address these gaps by developing an analytical model for design under competition, and using it in conjunction with a behavioral experiment to gain insights about how individuals actually make decisions in such scenarios. The contributions of the paper are two-fold. First, a game-theoretic model is presented for sequential design decisions considering the decisions made by other players. Second, an approach for synergistic integration of analytical models with data from behavioral experiments is presented. The proposed approach provides insights such as shift in participants' strategies from exploration to exploitation as they acquire more information, and how they develop beliefs about the quality of their opponents' solutions.
Understanding customer preferences in consideration decisions is critical to choice modeling in engineering design. While existing literature has shown that the exogenous effects (e.g., product and customer attributes) are deciding factors in customers' consideration decisions, it is not clear how the endogenous effects (e.g., the intercompetition among products) would influence such decisions. This paper presents a network-based approach based on Exponential Random Graph Models to study customers' consideration behaviors according to engineering design. Our proposed approach is capable of modeling the endogenous effects among products through various network structures (e.g., stars and triangles) besides the exogenous effects and predicting whether two products would be conisdered together. To assess the proposed model, we compare it against the dyadic network model that only considers exogenous effects. Using buyer survey data from the China automarket in 2013 and 2014, we evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the two models. The results show that our model has a better fit and predictive accuracy than the dyadic network model. This underscores the importance of the endogenous effects on customers' consideration decisions. The insights gained from this research help explain how endogenous effects interact with exogeous effects in affecting customers' decision-making.
Forecasting customers’ responses and market competitions is essential before launching major technological changes in product design. In this research, we present a data-driven network analysis approach to understand the interactions among technologies, products, and customers. Such an approach provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of technological changes on customers’ co-consideration behaviors. The multiple regression quadratic assignment procedure (MRQAP) is employed to quantitatively predict product co-consideration relations as a function of various effect networks created by associations of product attributes and customer demographics. The uniqueness of the proposed approach is its capability of predicting complex relationships of product co-consideration as a network. Using vehicles as a case study, we forecast the impacts of two technological changes — adopting the fuel economy-boosting technology and the turbo engine technology by individual auto companies. The case study provides vehicle designers with insights into the change of market competitions brought by new technological developments. Our proposed approach links the market complexity to technology features and subsequently product design attributes to guide engineering design decisions in the complex customer-product systems.
Design thinking is often hidden and implicit, so empirical approach based on experiments and data-driven methods has been the primary way of doing such research. In support of empirical studies, design behavioral data which reflects design thinking becomes crucial, especially with the recent advances in data mining and machine learning techniques. In this paper, a research platform that supports data-driven design thinking studies is introduced based on a computer-aided design (cad) software for solar energy systems, energy3d, developed by the team. We demonstrate several key features of energy3d including a fine-grained design process logger, embedded design experiment and tutorials, and interactive cad interfaces and dashboard. These features make energy3d a capable testbed for a variety of research related to engineering design thinking and design theory, such as search strategies, design decision-making, artificial intelligent (AI) in design, and design cognition. Using a case study on an energy-plus home design challenge, we demonstrate how such a platform enables a complete research cycle of studying designers” sequential decision-making behaviors based on fine-grained design action data and unsupervised clustering methods. The results validate the utility of energy3d as a research platform and testbed in supporting future design thinking studies and provide domain-specific insights into new ways of integrating clustering methods and design process models (e.g., the function–behavior–structure model) for automatically clustering sequential design behaviors.
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