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ABSTRACT:There is an increasing focus on the usefulness of climate model-based seasonal precipitation forecasts as inputs for hydrological applications. This study reveals that most models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have potential to forecast seasonal precipitation over 17 hydroclimatic regions in continental China. In this paper, we evaluated the NMME precipitation forecast against observations. The evaluation indices included the correlation coefficient (R), relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE), rank histogram (RH), and continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS). We presented the RRMSE-R diagram to distinguish differences between the performances of individual models. We find that the predictive skill is seasonally and regionally dependent, exhibiting higher values in autumn and spring and lower values in summer. Higher predictive skill is observed over most regions except the southeastern monsoon regions, which may be attributable to local climatology and variability. Among the 11 NMME models, CFS, especially CFSv2, exhibits the best predictive skill. The GFDL and NASA models, which are followed by CMC, perform worse than CFS. The performances of IRI and CCSM3 are relatively worse than that of the other models. The forecast skills are significantly improved in multi-model mean forecasts based on simple model averaging (SMA). The improvement is more obvious for Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which is employed to further improve the forecast skill and address model uncertainty using multiple model outputs, than individual model and SMA.

ABSTRACT. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of lymph node (LN) metastases from thoracic esophageal carcinoma near the recurrent laryngeal nerve and the influence of these metastases on patient prognosis and to determine the reasonable regional LN dissection range. The clinical data from 120 patients who underwent resection for thoracic esophageal carcinoma were analyzed retrospectively. LN metastases near the recurrent laryngeal nerve were detected in 34.2% of the cases, and the metastasis rates in the left and right LNs near the recurrent laryngeal nerve were 20.8 and 15.8%, respectively. The primary tumor site (metastasis rates for esophageal cancer in the upper thoracic segment vs chest or lower thoracic segment: 60.0 vs 40.3 or 15.8%, respectively; P < 0.01), tumor differentiation (poorly differentiated vs well differentiated or differentiated: 56.0 vs 22.0 or 35.6%, respectively; P < 0.05), and tumor invasion depth (T3 and T4 vs T1 and T2: 42.9 and 50.0% vs 8.33 and 14.3%, respectively; P < 0.01) were factors that significantly influenced LN metastasis near the recurrent laryngeal nerve LN metastases near the recurrent laryngeal nerve were associated with cervical LN metastasis. The 3-year survival rate of patients with LN metastasis near the recurrent laryngeal nerve was much lower than that of patients with other LN metastases (29.3 vs 58.2%; P < 0.05). In thoracic esophageal carcinoma cases, LNs near the recurrent laryngeal nerve should be resected. This could improve the patient prognosis and reduce the incidence of postoperative local recurrence.

In this paper, we study how to apply a periodic driving field to control stable spin tunneling in a non-Hermitian spin–orbit (SO) coupled bosonic double-well system. By means of a high-frequency approximation, we obtain the analytical Floquet solutions and their associated quasienergies and thus construct the general non-Floquet solutions of the dissipative SO coupled bosonic system. Based on detailed analysis of the Floquet quasienergy spectrum, the profound effect of system parameters and the periodic driving field on the stability of spin-dependent tunneling is investigated analytically and numerically for both balanced and unbalanced gain–loss between two wells. Under balanced gain and loss, we find that the stable spin-flipping tunneling is preferentially suppressed with the increase of gain–loss strength. When the ratio of Zeeman field strength to periodic driving frequency Ω/ω is even, there is a possibility that continuous stable parameter regions will exist. When Ω/ω is odd, nevertheless, only discrete stable parameter regions are found. Under unbalanced gain and loss, whether Ω/ω is even or odd, we can get parametric equilibrium conditions for the existence of stable spin tunneling. The results could be useful for the experiments of controlling stable spin transportation in a non-Hermitian SO coupled system.

In this study we have investigated the quantum tunneling of two repulsive bosons in a triple-well potential, subject to a high-frequency driving field. By means of the multiple-time-scale asymptotic analysis, we evidence a far-off-resonant strongly interacting regime in which the dominant tunneling of doublons (paired states) is a second-order process and the selected coherent destruction of tunneling occurs either between doublons or between unpaired states. Two Floquet quasienergy bands of both kinds of states are given analytically, where a fine structure up to the second-order corrections is displayed. The analytical results are confirmed numerically, based on the exact model, and may be particularly relevant to controlling correlated tunneling in experiments.