Vegetation indexes have been widely used to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate vegetation cover and its growth vigor. To further extend the study of vegetation indexes, this paper proposes to study the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and specific driving mechanisms of vegetation indexes based on the example of Yunnan Province, China, and also adds the study of spatial and temporal prediction methods of vegetation indexes. This paper used data on this region’s normalized vegetation index (NDVI), three meteorological factors, and eight social factors from 1998 to 2019. The dynamic change in and driving mechanism of the NDVI were studied using mean value analysis, univariate linear trend regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. In addition, the Fourier function model and the CA–Markov model were also used to predict the NDVI of Yunnan Province from 2020 to 2030 in time and space. The results show that: (1) The NDVI value in Yunnan Province is high, showing a significant growth trend. The increased vegetation coverage area has increased in the past 22 years without substantial vegetation degradation. (2) The positive promotion of meteorological factors is greater than the negative inhibition. The partial correlation of relative humidity among meteorological factors is the highest, which is the main driving factor. (3) The NDVI value is significantly positively correlated with population and economy and negatively correlated with pasture land and agricultural area. (4) The NDVI values are predicted well in time (R = 0.64) and space (Kappa = 0.8086 and 0.806), satisfying the accuracy requirements. This paper aims to enrich the theoretical and technical system of ecological environment research by studying the dynamic change, driving mechanism, and spatiotemporal prediction of the normalized vegetation index. Its results can provide the necessary theoretical basis for the simulation and prediction of vegetation indexes.

Terrestrial vegetation, a critical component of the Earth’s land surface, directly impacts the planet’s material and energy balance. This study investigated the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation in China from 2000 to 2019 using three remote sensing products (NDVI, EVI, and SIF) and explored the driving mechanisms behind these changes. We considered three meteorological factors, nine land use types, and two socio-economic factors while employing mathematical models to analyze the data. Additionally, we used the CA–Markov model to predict the spatial distribution of vegetation remote sensing products for 2020–2025. Our findings indicate the following: (1) Throughout the study period, the vegetation indices, NDVI, EVI, and SIF, all exhibited increasing trends. The SIF showed a more direct response to vegetation cover changes and was less influenced by other driving factors. The SIF outperforms the NDVI and EVI in detecting vegetation trend changes, particularly regarding sensitivity. (2) Vegetation cover changes are driven by multiple meteorological factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. These factors exhibit a strong spatial correlation with the distribution of vegetation remote sensing products. Among these factors, the SIF shows a higher sensitivity to temperature compared to the NDVI and EVI, while the NDVI and EVI display greater sensitivity to precipitation and relative humidity. (3) Within the study area, land use types reveal a gradient from northwest to southeast, which is consistent with the spatial distribution of the vegetation remote sensing products. For green vegetation types, the three remote sensing products exhibit varying sensitivity levels, with the SIF demonstrating the highest sensitivity to green vegetation types. (4) Overall, the future vegetation outlook in China is promising, especially in the southeastern regions where significant vegetation improvement trends are evident. However, the vegetation conditions in some northwestern areas remain less favorable, necessitating the reinforcement of ecological construction and improvement measures. Additionally, a significant positive correlation exists between population size, GDP, and vegetation remote sensing products. This study highlights the variability in the dynamics and driving mechanisms of terrestrial vegetation remote sensing products in China and employs the CA–Markov model for predicting future vegetation patterns. Our research contributes to the theoretical and technical understanding of remote sensing for terrestrial vegetation in the Chinese context.

The Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) is located in the mid-latitude and high-cold regions, and the ecological environment in most areas is fragile. Studying its surface vegetation coverage can identify the ecosystem’s development trends and provide a specific contribution to global environmental change. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) can better reflect the coverage of surface vegetation. Therefore, based on remote sensing data with a resolution of 1 km2, air temperature, precipitation, and other data in the same period in the study area from 1998 to 2019, this paper uses trend analysis, F-significance tests, the Hurst index, and the Geodetector model to obtain the spatial distribution, change characteristics, and evolution trends of the NDVI in the TAR in the past 22 years. At the same time, the quantitative relationship between natural and human factors and NDVI changes is also obtained. The study results show that the NDVI in the southern and southeastern parts of the TAR is higher, with mean values greater than 0.5 showing that vegetation cover is better. The NDVI in the western and northwestern parts of the TAR is lower, with mean values less than 0.3, indicating vegetation cover is worse. NDVI in the TAR showed an overall increasing trend from 1998 to 2019 but a decreasing trend in ridgelines, snow cover, and glacier-covered areas. The areas where NDVI values show a trend of increasing and then decreasing in the future account for 53.69% of the total area of the TAR. The most crucial factor affecting NDVI changes in the TAR is soil type, followed by influencing factors such as vegetation cover type, average annual air temperature, and average annual precipitation. The influence of natural elements is generally more significant than anthropogenic factors. The influencing factors have synergistic effects, and combining anthropogenic factors and other factors will show mutual enhancement and non-linear enhancement relationships. This study provides a theoretical basis for natural resource conservation, ecosystem restoration, and sustainable human development strategies in the TAR.

Horizontal and vertical distributions of aerosol properties in the Taklimakan Desert (TD), North central region of China (NCR),North China Plain(NCP), and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) were investigated by statistical analysis using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) L3 data from 2007 to 2020, to identify the similarities and differences in atmospheric aerosols in different regions, and evaluate the impact of pollution control policies developed in China in 2013 on aerosol properties in the study area. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) distribution had substantial seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics. AOD had high annual averages in TD (0.38), NCP (0.49), and YRD (0.52). However, these rates showed a decline post-implementation of the long-term pollution control policies; AOD values declined by 5%, 13.8%, 15.5%, and 23.7% in TD, NCR, NCP, and YRD respectively when comparing 2014–2018 to 2007–2013, and by 7.8%, 11.5%, 16%, and 10.4% when comparing 2019–2020 to 2014–2018. The aerosol extinction coefficient showed a clear regional pattern and a tendency to decrease gradually as height increased. Dust and polluted dust were responsible for the changes in AOD and extinction coefficients between TD and NCR and NCP and YRD, respectively. In TD, with change of longitude, dust aerosol first increased and then decreased gradually, peaking in the middle. Similarly in NCP, polluted dust aerosol first increased and then decreased, with a maximum value in the middle. The elevated smoke aerosols of NCP and YRD were significantly higher than those observed in TD and NCR. The high aerosol extinction coefficient values (>0.1 km−1) were mainly distributed below 4 km, and the relatively weak aerosol extinction coefficients (>0.001 km−1) were mainly distributed between 5–8 km, indicating that the high-altitude long-range transport of TD and NCR dust aerosols affects NCP and YRD.