BackgroundThere are limited data on the trends of incidence or prevalence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) in China. To assist in future planning for the ESRD program, the trends of incidence, prevalence and health care costs were analyzed and forecasted to the year 2025 by modeling of historical data from 2004 through 2014.MethodsNanjing urban employee basic medical insurance (NJUEBMI) data were obtained from the Nanjing Medical Insurance Information System from 2004 to 2014. The time series forecasting system in SAS 9.4 was used. Each variable was independently forecasted by the fittest model, which was selected automatically or manually.ResultsThe forecasting models demonstrated mean percent errors of −2.49 to 5.62 %, relative to the observed values. The R-square values for the forecasting models ranged from 0.756 to 0.997. On the basis of trends in the historical data, the models projected that the average annual increase in the NJUEBMI population was 4.77 %, with forecasted values of 5,029,270 in 2025 (95 % CI, 4,960,423-5,098,117). The incidence and prevalence of ESRD were projected to increase by 1.19 and 1.95 % annually and were expected to reach 250.5 pmp (95 % CI, 247.7–253.3) and 1505 pmp(95 % CI, 1450–1560) by 2025. Additionally, the costs associated with ESRD were forecasted to increase at a growth rate of 5.80 % for healthcare costs and 7.25‰ for per capita medical expenses, with forecasted values of ¥600.3 million ($92.4 million) (95 % CI, 541.8–658.9) and ¥99.0 thousand ($15.2 thousand) (95 % CI, 98.6–99.3), respectively, by 2025. The incidence and prevalence of kidney transplantation were projected to decrease by 6.58 and 9.79 % annually.ConclusionsThese projections suggest that the incidence, prevalence, healthcare costs, and per capita medical expenses of ESRD would increase in the NJUEBMI population. They provide a basis for discussing the trends of ESRD in China and facing the challenges from the ESRD program.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12882-016-0269-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Background Arrhythmia is a common cardiovascular event that is associated with increased cardiovascular health risks. Previous studies that have explored the association between air pollution and arrhythmia have obtained inconsistent results, and the association between the two in China is unclear. Methods We collected daily data on air pollutants and meteorological factors from 1st January 2014 to 31st December 2016, along with daily outpatient visits for arrhythmia in Hangzhou, China. We used a quasi-Poisson regression along with a distributed lag nonlinear model to study the association between air pollution and arrhythmia morbidity. Results The results of the single-pollutant model showed that each increase of 10 μg/m3 of Fine particulate matter (PM2.5), Coarse particulate matter (PM10), Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and Ozone (O3) resulted in increases of 0.6% (− 0.9, 2.2%), 0.7% (− 0.4, 1.7%), 11.9% (4.5, 19.9%), 6.7% (3.6, 9.9%), and − 0.9% (− 2.9, 1.2%), respectively, in outpatient visits for arrhythmia; each increase of 1 mg/m3 increase of carbon monoxide (CO) resulted in increase of 11.3% (− 5.9, 31.6%) in arrhythmia. The short-term effects of air pollution on arrhythmia lasted 3 days, and the most harmful effects were observed on the same day that the pollution occurred. Results of the subgroup analyses showed that SO2 and NO2 affected both men and women, but differences between the sexes were not statistically significant. The effect of SO2 on the middle-aged population was statistically significant. The effect of NO2 was significant in both the young and middle-aged population, and no significant difference was found between them. Significant effects of air pollution on arrhythmia were only detected in the cold season. The results of the two-pollutants model and the single-pollutant model were similar. Conclusions SO2 and NO2 may induce arrhythmia, and the harmful effects are primarily observed in the cold season. There is no evidence of PM2.5, PM10, CO and O3 increasing arrhythmia risk. Special attention should be given to sensitive populations during the high-risk period.
Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is a serious microvascular complication of diabetes. It has become a leading cause of death in patients with diabetes and end-stage renal disease. Ferroptosis is a newly discovered pattern of programmed cell death. Its main manifestation is the excessive accumulation of intracellular iron ion-dependent lipid peroxides. Recent studies have shown that ferroptosis is an important driving factor in the onset and development of DN. Ferroptosis is closely associated with renal intrinsic cell (including renal tubular epithelial cells, podocytes, and mesangial cells) damage in diabetes. Chinese herbal medicine is widely used in the treatment of DN, with a long history and definite curative effect. Accumulating evidence suggests that Chinese herbal medicine can modulate ferroptosis in renal intrinsic cells and show great potential for improving DN. In this review, we outline the key regulators and pathways of ferroptosis in DN and summarize the herbs, mainly monomers and extracts, that target the inhibition of ferroptosis.
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