Abstract. The Box-Jenkins approach was used to fit an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal Syndrome (HFRS) in China during 1986-2009. The ARIMA (0, 1, 1) + (2, 1, 0) 12 models fitted exactly with the number of cases during January 1986-December 2009. The fitted model was then used to predict HFRS incidence during 2010, and the number of cases during January-December 2010 fell within the model's confidence interval for the predicted number of cases in 2010. This finding suggests that the ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.
BackgroundThe aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of bicyclol treatment in statin-induced liver injury.Material/MethodsThe study included 168 patients with liver injury caused by statins. Patients were randomized into two four-week treatment groups: bicyclol 25 mg three times daily or polyene phosphatidylcholine 456 mg three times daily as control. Serum biochemical indexes were compared before and after treatment.ResultsSignificant differences in alanine transaminase (ALT) levels among the three measurements before and after treatment in the two groups at different time points were observed (p<0.01). There was a significant difference (p<0.01) between two weeks and four weeks after treatment compared to the baseline period. There was a significant interaction (p=0.003) between the two groups and time factors. After two and four weeks of treatment, the ALT levels in the control group (68.20±26.31, 50.71±27.13 respectively) were higher compared to the ALT in the bicyclol group (49.33±21.39, 30.36±17.41 respectively) (p<0.01). After four weeks of treatment, the normalization rates of bicyclol and polyene phosphatidylcholine groups were 74.68% and 46.15%, respectively. The efficacy of bicyclol was significantly better than that of polyene phosphatidylcholine (p<0.05). The incidence of adverse reactions in the bicyclol and polyene phosphatidylcholine groups were 2.53% and 2.56%, respectively, with no statistically significant differences observed between the two groups (p>0.05).ConclusionsThese findings suggest that trends of ALT changes in the two groups were different, and the improvement of ALT was more obvious in the bicyclol group. Bicyclol is considered to be safe and effective in the treatment of statin-induced liver injury.
The findings of clinical studies concerning the association between anthocyanins supplementation and blood pressure (BP) are inconsistent.In order to provide a more precise estimate of the overall effect of anthocyanins on systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), we conducted a meta-analysis of clinical trials about anthocyanins supplementation and BP.PubMed, Web of Science, Wanfang Database, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) (until October 2015) were searched to identify potential studies with information on anthocyanins extract supplementation and arterial BP. The weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used as a summary statistic. Net changes in SBP and DBP between anthocyanins supplementation and placebo groups were calculated by subtracting the values at end of follow-up from those at baseline. Meta regression was used to explore the potential moderators of effect size. The publication bias was assessed using Begger's Funnel plots and Egger's tests; P < 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant.Finally, 6 clinical studies with 472 participants for the effect of anthocyanins consumption on BP were included in the present meta-analysis. There is no significant effect on either SBP (WMD: 1.15 mm Hg, 95% CI: −3.17 to 5.47, I2 = 56%) or DBP (WMD: 1.06 mm Hg, 95% CI: −0.71 to 2.83, I2 = 0%) following supplementation with anthocyanins.In summary, results from this meta-analysis do not favor any clinical efficacy of supplementation with anthocyanins in improving blood pressure. Further well-designed large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with long follow-up period are needed to verify the association of anthocyanins supplementation and blood pressure.
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