Land-use change is supposed to exert significant effects on the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem carbon storage in arid regions, while the relative size of land-use change effect under future environmental change conditions is still less quantified. In this study, we combined a land-use change dataset with a satellite-based high-resolution biomass and soil organic carbon dataset to determine the role of land-use change in affecting ecosystem carbon storage from 1980 to 2050 in the Gansu province of China, using the MCE-CA-Markov and InVEST models. In addition, to quantify the relative size of the land-use change effect in comparison with other environmental drivers, we also considered the effects of climate change, CO2 enrichment, and cropland and forest managements in the models. The results show that the ecosystem carbon storage in the Gansu province increased by 208.9 ± 99.85 Tg C from 1980 to 2020, 12.87% of which was caused by land-use change, and the rest was caused by climate change, CO2 enrichment, and ecosystem managements. The land-use change-induced carbon sequestration was mainly associated with the land-use category conversion from farmland to grassland as well as from saline land and desert to farmland, driven by the grain-for-green projects in the Loess Plateau and oasis cultivation in the Hexi Corridor. Furthermore, it was projected that ecosystem carbon storage in the Gansu province from 2020 to 2050 will change from −14.69 ± 12.28 Tg C to 57.83 ± 53.42 Tg C (from 105.62 ± 51.83 Tg C to 177.03 ± 94.1 Tg C) for the natural development (ecological protection) scenario. By contrast, the land-use change was supposed to individually increase the carbon storage by 56.46 ± 9.82 (165.84 ± 40.06 Tg C) under the natural development (ecological protection) scenario, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of ecological protection and restoration in enhancing ecosystem carbon storage for arid regions, especially under future climate change conditions.
Agricultural carbon emissions are supposed to be a fundamental component of the regional carbon cycle in regions with intense agricultural activities. However, the patterns and controls of agricultural carbon emissions based on the water–land resource coupling effect remain poorly understood in arid inland regions. Thus, we constructed a research framework combining water and land resources with agricultural carbon emissions to assess the linkage of water–land–agricultural carbon emissions in arid inland regions. The agricultural carbon emission measurement model and water–land resource coupling coordination degree model (WLCD) were used for exploring the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural carbon emissions and water–land elements. The interaction between societal , economic , and ecological factors on agricultural carbon emissions was clarified using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI). The applicability of the method was verified in the Zhangye oasis in northwest China. The results are as follows: 1) from 2012 to 2019, the agricultural carbon emissions in Zhangye increased first and then declined, with 96% of which mainly coming from chemical fertilizers and plowing; 2) the coupling coordination index of water–land resources in Zhangye increased from 0.3715 in 2012 to 0.5399 in 2019, an increase of 45.33%, indicating a conversion from mild disordered to basic coordination; 3) regarding the effects among the factors, the economic output of agricultural water resource, cropland area per capita, and population (the water and land resource ratio and agricultural carbon emission intensity) exerted positive (negative) impacts on agricultural carbon emissions. Accordingly, it is suggested that the green and low-carbon development strategies for oasis agriculture require a high level of integrated planning and management of water and land resources, as well as comprehensive consideration of low-carbon agriculture and elements related to water and land.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.