The objective of this work was to adapt and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian hybrid model to characterize objective temporal medication ingestion parameters from two clinical studies in patients with serious mental illness (SMI) receiving treatment with a digital medicine system. This system provides a signal from an ingested sensor contained in the dosage form to a patient-worn patch and transmits this signal via the patient’s mobile device. A previously developed hybrid Markov-von Mises model was used to obtain maximum-likelihood estimates for medication ingestion behavior parameters for individual patients. The individual parameter estimates were modeled to obtain distribution parameters of priors implemented in a Markov chain-Monte Carlo framework. Clinical and demographic covariates associated with model ingestion parameters were also assessed. We obtained individual estimates of overall observed ingestion percent (median:75.9%, range:18.2–98.3%, IQR:32.9%), rate of excess dosing events (median:0%, range:0–14.3%, IQR:3.0%) and observed ingestion duration. The modeling also provided estimates of the Markov-dependence probabilities of dosing success following a dosing success or failure. The ingestion-timing deviations were modeled with the von Mises distribution. A subset of 17 patients (22.1%) were identified as prompt correctors based on Markov-dependence probability of a dosing failure followed by a dosing success of unity. The prompt corrector sub-group had a better overall digital medicine ingestion parameter profile compared to those who were not prompt correctors. Our results demonstrate the potential utility of a Bayesian Hybrid Markov-von Mises model for characterizing digital medicine ingestion patterns in patients with SMI.
We study whether audit partner quality in the preceding year plays a role in restatements and audit opinions in the current year. Audit failure rate is used as a measure of audit partner quality. A dataset of Iranian listed firms consisting of 1188 observations for the years 2012-2017 is used as the sample. Multivariate analysis reveals that audit partner quality is negatively associated with restatements and issuance of a clean opinion. In addition, this negative association is stronger for the engagement partner (i.e., the partner who actually carries out the audits) than for the review partner (i.e., the partner who reviews the audits). Several sensitivity tests are employed, and the results do not change significantly. Such findings go against the "isolated-incident" argument but support the "causal" argument and suggest that governing bodies play a key role in auditor selection, changes and fees should pay more attention to audit quality at the partner level in their decisions.
Background Adherence to medication is often represented in the form of a success percentage over a period of time. Although noticeable changes to aggregate adherence levels may be indicative of unstable medication behavior, a lack of noticeable changes in aggregate levels over time does not necessarily indicate stability. The ability to detect developing changes in medication-taking behavior under such conditions in real time would allow patients and care teams to make more timely and informed decisions. Objective This study aims to develop a method capable of identifying shifts in behavioral (medication) patterns at the individual level and subsequently assess the presence of such shifts in retrospective clinical trial data from patients with serious mental illness. Methods We defined the term adherence volatility as “the degree to which medication ingestion behavior fits expected behavior based on historically observed data” and defined a contextual anomaly system around this concept, leveraging the empirical entropy rate of a stochastic process as the basis for formulating anomaly detection. For the presented methodology, each patient’s evolving behavior is used to dynamically construct the expectation bounds for each future interval, eliminating the need to rely on model training or a static reference sequence. Results Simulations demonstrated that the presented methodology identifies anomalous behavior patterns even when aggregate adherence levels remain constant and highlight the temporal dependence inherent in these anomalies. Although a given sequence of events may present as anomalous during one period, that sequence should subsequently contribute to future expectations and may not be considered anomalous at a later period—this feature was demonstrated in retrospective clinical trial data. In the same clinical trial data, anomalous behavioral shifts were identified at both high- and low-adherence levels and were spread across the whole treatment regimen, with 77.1% (81/105) of the population demonstrating at least one behavioral anomaly at some point in their treatment. Conclusions Digital medicine systems offer new opportunities to inform treatment decisions and provide complementary information about medication adherence. This paper introduces the concept of adherence volatility and develops a new type of contextual anomaly detection, which does not require an a priori definition of normal and allows expectations to evolve with shifting behavior, removing the need to rely on training data or static reference sequences. Retrospective analysis from clinical trial data highlights that such an approach could provide new opportunities to meaningfully engage patients about potential shifts in their ingestion behavior; however, this framework is not intended to replace clinical judgment, rather to highlight elements of data that warrant attention. The evidence provided here identifies new areas for research and seems to justify additional explorations in this area.
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