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Frequent slow slip events and rapid postseismic slip reveal persistent aseismic fault areas delineating future seismic ruptures.

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International audienceWe document a 1 week long slow slip event (SSE) with an equivalent moment magnitude of 6.0-6.3 which occurred in August 2010 below La Plata Island (Ecuador), south of the rupture area of the 1906 Mw= 8.8 megathrust earthquake. GPS data reveal that the SSE occurred at a depth of about 10 km, within the downdip part of a shallow (<15 km), isolated, locked patch along the subduction interface. The availability of both broadband seismometer and continuous geodetic station located at the La Plata Island, 10 km above the SSE, enables a careful analysis of the relationships between slow and rapid processes of stress release along the subduction interface. During the slow slip sequence, the seismic data show a sharp increase of the local seismicity, with more than 650 earthquakes detected, among which 50 have a moment magnitude between 1.8 and 4.1. However, the cumulative moment released through earthquakes accounts, at most, for 0.2% of the total moment release estimated from GPS displacements. Most of the largest earthquakes are located along or very close to the subduction interface with focal mechanism consistent with the relative plate motion. While the earthquake sizes show a classical distribution (Gutenberg-Richter law with a b-value close to 1), the space-time occurrence presents a specific pattern. First, the largest earthquakes appear to occur randomly during the slow slip sequence, which further evidence that the seismicity is driven by the stress fluctuations related to aseismic slip. Moreover, the seismicity observed during the SSE consists in individual events and families of repeating earthquakes. These observations indicate that the stress increment induced by the episodic aseismic slip may lead both to sudden seismic moment release and to progressive rupture within small locked patches. This study offers an a posteriori interpretation of the seismogenesis in the Central Ecuador subduction zone, where intense seismic swarms have been regularly observed (1977, 1998, 2002, and 2005). These swarms have likely been triggered by large-magnitude slow slip events

S U M M A R YThe maximum intersection (MAXI) method, which derives from the master station method (MSM), determines within a 3-D velocity model the absolute hypocentral location based on observed arrival times. First, the spatial node that better satisfies the arrival time differences computed at all station pairs, plus or minus an error tolerance value (in seconds), is defined as the preliminary hypocentral solution (PRED). Second, because PRED depends neither on the estimate of origin time nor on the residual root mean square (rms), residual outliers are objectively detected and cleaned out from the original data set without any iterative process or weighting. Third, a statistical minimization (residual rms) is conducted in a small domain around the PRED node, which results in a unique FINAL solution. The MAXI method is applied to the determination of earthquake hypocentres (with the proper station correction terms) in the southernmost extremity of the Ryukyu subduction zone, where several dense seismic clusters occur near the seismogenic plate interface. The location of earthquakes, recorded at both the Taiwanese and Japanese networks, is obtained for about a thousand events (between 1992 and 1997). The process uses a detailed 3-D velocity model based on multiple geophysical data sources obtained in the junction area between subduction and collision (east of Taiwan). The earthquake clustering and the significant drop in residual statistics (1.20, 0.80 and 0.35 s, for Taiwanese catalogue, MSM and MAXIM solutions respectively) indicate the accuracy of the method, which can be used to routinely determine absolute hypocentre location based on observed arrival times.

To improve earthquake location, we create a 3-D a priori P-wave velocity model (3-DVM) that approximates the large velocity variations of the Ecuadorian subduction system. The 3-DVM is constructed from the integration of geophysical and geological data that depend on the structural geometry and velocity properties of the crust and the upper mantle. In addition, specific station selection is carried out to compensate for the high station density on the Andean Chain. 3-D synthetic experiments are then designed to evaluate the network capacity to recover the event position using only P arrivals and the MAXI technique. Three synthetic earthquake location experiments are proposed: (1) noise-free and (2) noisy arrivals used in the 3-DVM, and (3) noise-free arrivals used in a 1-DVM. Synthetic results indicate that, under the best conditions (exact arrival data set and 3-DVM), the spatiotemporal configuration of the Ecuadorian network can accurately locate 70 per cent of events in the frontal part of the subduction zone (average azimuthal gap is 289 • ± 44 • ). Noisy P arrivals (up to ± 0.3 s) can accurately located 50 per cent of earthquakes. Processing earthquake location within a 1-DVM almost never allows accurate hypocentre position for offshore earthquakes (15 per cent), which highlights the role of using a 3-DVM in subduction zone. For the application to real data, the seismicity distribution from the 3-D-MAXI catalogue is also compared to the determinations obtained in a 1-D-layered VM. In addition to good-quality location uncertainties, the clustering and the depth distribution confirm the 3-D-MAXI catalogue reliability. The pattern of the seismicity distribution (a 13 yr record during the inter-seismic period of the seismic cycle) is compared to the pattern of rupture zone and asperity of the M w = 7.9 1942 and the M w = 7.7 1958 events (the M w = 8.8 1906 asperity patch is not defined). We observe that the nucleation of 1942, 1958 and 1906 events coincides with areas of positive Simple Bouguer anomalies and areas where marine terraces are still preserved on the coastal morphology. From north to south: (1) the 1958 rupture zone is almost aseismic and is attributed to a zone of high coupling; (2) south of the Galera alignment (perpendicular to the trench), the 1942 rupture zone presents moderate seismicity, deeper on the seismogenic interplate zone, and abutting on the Jama cluster (to the south). This cluster is facing the Cabo Pasado cap and positive Bouguer anomalies on the overriding margin. We suspect that this cluster reflects a zone of local asperity (partial coupling). South of the Jama cluster, the spherical aseismic zone in the Bahia area is interpreted as having a low seismic coupling (steady creep motion or slow slip events). We suspect that the site that generated the three M > 7 events (1896, 1956 and 1998) correspond to a small patch of strong coupling. To the south, in the Manta-Puerto Lopez zone, the seismicity is mainly organized in earthquake swarms (1998, 2002, 2005). Although slow slip even...