a b s t r a c tBehavioral models of human operators engaged in complex, time-critical high-risk domains, such as those typical in Human Supervisory Control (HSC) settings, are of great value because of the high cost of operator failure. We propose that Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs) can be employed to model behaviors of operators in HSC settings where there is some intermittent human interaction with a system via a set of external controls. While regular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) can be used to model operator behavior, HSMMs are particularly suited to time-critical supervisory control domains due to their explicit representation of state duration. Using HSMMs, we demonstrate in an unmanned vehicle supervisory control environment that such models can accurately predict future operator behavior both in terms of states and durations.
In this paper, we model operator states using hidden Markov models applied to human supervisory control behaviors. More specifically, we model the behavior of an operator of multiple heterogeneous unmanned vehicle systems. The hidden Markov model framework allows the inference of higher operator states from observable operator interaction with a computer interface. For example, a sequence of operator actions can be used to compute a probability distribution of possible operator states. Such models are capable of detecting deviations from expected operator behavior as learned by the model. The difficulty with parametric inference models such as hidden Markov models is that a large number of parameters must either be specified by hand or learned from example data. We compare the behavioral models obtained with two different supervised learning techniques and an unsupervised hidden Markov model training technique. The results suggest that the best models of human supervisory control behavior are obtained through unsupervised learning. We conclude by presenting further extensions to this work.
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